违约前的金融危机成本有多大?来自动态模型的估计

Redouane Elkamhi, M. Salerno
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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们使用资本结构的动态权衡模型,将违约前的财务困境成本(违约前成本)与违约时发生的损失(违约造成的损失)分开估算。我们发现,违约前的成本平均每年相当于公司价值的6.5%。我们发现,违约前成本占总危机成本的很大一部分,约为68.5%。最后,我们表明,不同行业的财务困境预期违约前成本差异显著,范围在3.75%至8.75%之间,对于拥有高度有形资产的公司来说,违约前成本更高。
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How large are Pre-Default Costs of Financial Distress? Estimates from a Dynamic Model
We estimate the costs of financial distress prior to default (pre-default costs) separately from the loss incurred at default (the loss given default) using a dynamic trade-off model of capital structure. We document that pre-default costs are on average equal to 6.5% of firm value per year. We show that pre-default costs account for a large fraction of total distress costs, approximately 68.5%. Last, we show that the expected pre-default costs of financial distress vary significantly across industries with a range between 3.75% and 8.75%, and are higher for firms with highly tangible assets.
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