Assessment of decarbonization possibilities in Lithuania’s chemical industry

ABSTRACT The main objectives of this paper are to present the developed model and to explore and discuss the decarbonization possibilities of the Lithuanian chemical industry. The sector has high energy consumption and struggles to achieve emission reductions. The developed model is based on a bottom-up modeling approach representing the industry’s current and emerging technology mix. We conclude that the deep decarbonization of Lithuania’s chemical industry is technically feasible under certain conditions. The deployment of carbon capture technology is necessary to decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by at least 40% in 2030. To achieve deep decarbonization of the sector, green hydrogen as feedstock for ammonia production should be utilized before 2050. Decarbonization scenarios cause an increase of undiscounted costs by more than 618–3132 million Euros depending on CO2 reduction targets when cumulated over the 2018–2050 period. The ammonia production facility should cover a substantial share of these costs until 2030, which could negatively affect its competitiveness.