市场基本面、市场情绪和二手船价格

IF 0.3 4区 工程技术 Q4 ECONOMICS International Journal of Transport Economics Pub Date : 2005-02-01 DOI:10.1400/16934
G. Wright
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引用次数: 1

摘要

运费率的变化通常被用来表明航运业和市场的短期调整,而二手船价格的变化通常被用来表明市场条件和未来贸易机会的长期变化。本文探讨了市场基本面和市场情绪在决定二手船价格中的特殊作用。作者使用干散货船结构的二手船价格数据来检验他的假设。作者首先讨论了市场基本面和市场情绪可能影响二手船舶市场的可能方式;协整分析用于检验预期的长期关系。然后应用短期测试来检查变量之间的因果关系。研究结果支持市场基本面假说,但作者强调,得出市场情绪在二手船价格决定中没有作用的结论可能还为时过早。
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MARKET FUNDAMENTALS, MARKET SENTIMENT AND SECOND-HAND SHIP PRICES
While changes in freight rates are usually taken to indicate short-run adjustments in the shipping industry and market, changes in second-hand ship prices are often taken to indicate longer term changes in market conditions and future trading opportunities. This paper addresses the issue of the particular roles of market fundamentals and market sentiment in determining second-hand ship prices. The author tests his hypotheses using data on second-hand ship prices from the dry bulk carrier structure. The author begins with a discussion of the possible ways in which market fundamentals and market sentiment might influence the market for second-hand ships; cointegration analysis is used to test for the expected long-run relationships. Short-run tests are then applied to check the causality between the variables. The results lend support to the market fundamentals hypothesis, but the author stresses that it may be premature to conclude that market sentiment plays no part in the determination of second-hand ship prices.
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