Roadway Deterioration Prediction Using Markov Chain Modeling (Wasit Governorate/ Iraq as a Case Study)

Roads have always been used as a means of facilitating the movement between cities for goods and people, taking into account the safety and comfort of travelers. The Iraq’s cities have a limited road network connecting between there, so that if the road deteriorates or reaches to failure stage, there are no alternatives will be available. Therefore, the need was arising to find a method or technique that allow prediction the road performance before it reaching the final failure stage. The techniques requirements to create accurate prediction will be varied, which requires the use of appropriate technology for the available resources. Because of the limited resources available in Iraq, this paper will try to use an easy-to-use technology and only need to conduct field surveys as input data, then its output is the future road state. In this study, a deterioration model was developed (for the Baghdad-Kut road project) using Markov chains to improve decision makers' ability to make decisions and to implement them in the annual government plan.