Changes in the Cerrado vegetation structure: insights from more than three decades of ecological succession

Abstract. Changes in the vegetation of Brazilian Cerrado may occur over time. However, long-term dynamics are not fully understood yet, especially woody plant encroachment (WPE). The objective of this study was to examine changes in vegetation structure in a preserved area in Triângulo Mineiro region, within the southern Brazilian Cerrado domain, over 32 years (1987, 2005, and 2019). We based the study on field and literature surveys, as well as satellite imagery, and hypothesized that, due to the absence of periodic fires or grazing, Cerrado open formations (i.e., grassland or savanna) tend to become denser due to WPE. Shrubby grassland cover assessed in 1987 disappeared in the following periods (from 30.0 % to 0.0 % in 2019) while forest formations increased (from 7.0 % in 1987 to 11.0 % in 2019). Changes between 2005 and 2019 occurred within the stricto sensu cerrado subdivisions, with reduction of sparse cerrado (from 34.2 % to 7.7 %) and an increase in dense cerrado (from 6.9 % to 39.8 %). Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) applied for similar periods indicates a progressive increase of values over time (from 1986 ( 0.61±0.10 ) to 2004 ( 0.65±0.06 ) and 2018 ( 0.78±0.05 )) and corroborates the WPE process. These patterns imply the loss of biodiversity in open plant formation. Another major consequence was the reduction of wetlands and possible impact on water supply. Such patterns are important to support plant management plans for the threatened Cerrado open plant formations.