Risk assessment of exposure to the Middle Eastern dust storms in Iran

Abstract The aims of this study were to i) assess the relationship between COVID-19 cases with PM10 concentration and ii) investigation premature deaths due to cardiovascular (M-CVD) and respiratory (M-RD) diseases in three classification levels (PM10<50µg m−3 in normal days, 50–200 µg m−3 in dusty days, and >200 µg m−3 in MED storm), by using daily averages of PM10 concentrations. The number of M-CVD and M-RD were estimated by concentration-response model, per 105 people during 2017 to 2021. The results showed that 187, 183, 163, 215, and 206 days were observed with the PM10 concentrations lower than 50 µg m−3 during 2017 to 2021, and 178, 180, 200, 150, and 149 days were subtotal with exceeding PM10 from the WHO guideline (50 µg m−3), respectively. A positive correlation (r2=0.33, p < 0.05) was found to be between the number of COVID-19 cases and PM10 mean concentrations (r = 0.589, p = 0.046). Our findings showed that the highest M-CVD and M-RD were among exposed people at dusty days (50 < PM10≤ 200 μg m−3) in 2019. The total M-CVD and M-RD from 2017 to 2021 were 11.78 and 12.2, 18.25 and 17.4, 22.29 and 23.78, 10.33 and 7.6, 10.37 and 9.95 per 105 people, respectively which 31.48% of health effects were related to PM10 concentrations more than 200 μg m−3.