通货膨胀目标制下汇率对物价的传导效应:亚太、南美和土耳其经济比较

Murat Karagöz , Baki Demirel , Emre Güneşer Bozdağ
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引用次数: 10

摘要

90年代大多数新兴市场经济体都面临着严重的危机。在这些危机之后,新兴市场经济体的货币政策放弃了将汇率作为锚点。对这些市场来说,通胀目标制成了一项新政策。汇率对市场的过度影响以及随之而来的麻烦是这些政治变化的重要原因。本研究旨在比较衡量汇率对亚太、拉丁(南美)美洲和土耳其经济体价格的传递影响,这些经济体实行通货膨胀目标制,但在美元化和通货膨胀经历方面具有可变特征。为了计算汇率对国内价格的传递效应,本研究中使用的模型有五个可变因素。模型分析是VAR方法的基础。由于在时间序列之外还使用了横截面序列,所以使用了Panel VAR模型。根据获得的研究结果,可以说亚太经济体的传递效应低于拉丁美洲和土耳其的传递效应。这一结果也符合经检验的传递效应文献
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Pass-through Effect from Exchange Rates to the Prices in the Framework of Inflation Targeting Policy: A Comparison of Asia-Pacific, South American and Turkish Economies

Most of the emerging market economy in 90s faced to grave crisis. After these crises, the monetary policies of emerging market economies gave up to use exchange rates as an anchor. For such markets inflation targeting became a new policy. Exchange rates’ overshooting effects in the markets and consequential troubles are important causes of these political changes. The study aims at comparatively measuring the pass through impacts of exchange rates to the prices in Asia Pacific, Latin (South) America, and Turkey economies, which implement inflation targeting regime, but have the variable traits in dollarization and inflation experiences For calculating of pass-through effects from exchange rates to domestic prices, the model that is used in the study has five variable factors. Analysis of model is base of VAR approach. Due to cross section series are used in addition to time series, Panel VAR model has been used. Upon obtained findings, it can be said that pass-through effect in Asia Pacific economies is lower than pass-through effect in Latin America and Turkey. This result also complies with the examined pass-through effect literature.

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