复杂海上网络绿地开发战略序列的态势分析

Sukrut Shridhar Kulkarni, Marliana Bt Mohammad, Sharifah Nooraini Bt Syed Tahir, Frankie Kia Yong Tan, M. Supu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文通过对复杂海上设施进行情景分析,以识别新的碳氢化合物分子,建立了绿色油田开发的适当顺序和货币化策略。作为复杂网络的谨慎运营商,至关重要的是追求战略思想和创新概念,以优化供需平衡,履行合同义务,优化资源,最大限度地创造价值,同时保护绿色油田开发中油气货币化的投资决策。因此,有必要通过稳健的评估来实施成功的商业计划,并对新领域进行适当的排序,以破译痛点,从而通过更好地了解新绿色领域开发的网络特征、供应分布和操作范围来实现最佳解决方案。对于复杂的海上系统,情景分析被定义为对周围事实/现实进行强有力的调查,以仔细检查能力、风险、不确定性、机会和风险方面的独特特征。本文采用的方法是为嵌入业务规则和部署的网络/基础设施创建数学模型,以进行评估和优化。这种方法是为了及时提供管理决策,以制定排序战略,建立优先供应指导方针和分配原则。本文描述了一种最先进的方法,由仿真工程师开发端到端网络模型,与战略规划、组合优化和包括单平台操作密切合作。进一步验证了仿真模型,并从技术和商业分配原则两方面对当前网络障碍进行了分析。建模方法保持直接和可扩展,以允许未来的开发(如果有的话)。对模型的分析可以通过实施适当的改革来优化疏散策略,从而帮助衡量提高系统能力的潜力。系统架构上的障碍可以通过操作理念的变化、网络组合的改变和适当的去瓶颈建议来估计和规划其重构。在商业计划中应用的分配原则在最初的基础上考虑商业因素,而不是评估物理和技术限制。然后对分配结果进行模拟,并根据网络的相关技术约束条件,将分配结果重新分配回相应的需求中心。这使团队能够确定供需差距,并提出解决方案,以解决企业层面的巨大差距,从而建立一个必要的绿色领域货币化的案例。上述方法描述了如何通过开发端到端数学模型来总结复杂海上系统的微观细节,从而促进对新油田开发路线的分析和战略制定。新颖之处在于,仿真模型建立在一个单一的平台上,允许从不同的元素,如油田,设施,管道,上述方法详细阐述了结果问题方法,该方法通过确定CAPEX /OPEX优化来引导和倡导对新油田排序的情景分析,该方法可以指导在两年内以适当的网络强度排列四个新油田的决策,并具有最佳的货币化。
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Situational Analysis of Complex Offshore Network for Strategizing Sequence for Green Field Development
This paper establishes the approach to strategize the appropriate sequencing and monetization of the green field development through performing situational analysis for the complex offshore facilities to recognize new hydrocarbon molecules. As prudent operator for the complex network its crucial to pursue strategic ideas and innovative concepts to optimize supply demand balance, fulfill contractual obligations to optimize resources to maximize value creation, whilst protecting investment decisions for hydrocarbon monetization for the green field development. It is therefore necessary to implement successful business plans with appropriate sequencing of new fields by robust assessment to decipher the pain points to achieve optimal solution by gaining better understanding of network characteristic, supply distribution and operating envelope for line ups of new green field development. Situational Analysis for the complex offshore system is defined as robust investigation of the surrounding facts/realities to scrutinize the unique features in terms of capabilities, risks, uncertainty, opportunity, and exposures. The approach followed in the paper is the creation of mathematical model for the network/infrastructure embedded with business rules and deployment for evaluation and optimization. This approach is to timely deliver the management decisions for developing sequencing strategy, establishing priority of supply guidelines and allocation principles. This paper describes that a state of art approach which was followed by developing end to end network model by simulation engineers with close collaboration with strategic planning, portfolio optimization and including operations in single platform. The simulation model was further validated and deployed to analyze current network impediments in terms of technical and commercial allocation principles. The modelling approach was kept straightforward and scalable to allow for the future development if any. Analytics of the modelling could assist in gauging the potentials for enhancing system capacity by implementing appropriate reforms to optimize evacuation strategies. Obstacles across system architecture could be estimated and its reconfiguration was planned by means of variations in operating philosophy, alterations in the network assembly with appropriate debottlenecking recommendation. The allocation principles applied during business plans consider the commercial element on initial basis, before instead the physical and technical constraints were evaluated. The results of the allocation were then simulated and reallocated back to relevant demand center with relevant technical constraints of the network. This enabled team to identify the gap for supply/demand and propose solution to address the gap at an enterprise level to be substantial, to build a case whereby monetization of green fields will be necessary. Above methodology describes how by developing an end to end mathematical model that summarizes the microscopic details of a complex offshore system to facilitate on the way to analyze and strategize new field development line-ups. The novelty is with the simulation model built in a single platform, allows a seamless data transfer from various elements such as fields, facilities, pipelines, and terminal and is one stop solution for accessing impediments across architecture The above approach elaborates on result matter approach that steer and advocate on the situational analysis for new field sequencing by ascertaining CAPEX /OPEX optimization that could steer decision of lining up of four new fields within span of two years at appropriate intensity of the network with optimal monetization.
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