基于Agent的模型中Agent异质性的结构效应:来自COVID-19社会传播的教训

D. Reeves, Nicholas Willems, V. Shastry, V. Rai
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在我们实际所处的社会系统背景下对人类行为进行建模,需要捕捉人类群体中潜在的异质性。然而,与引入异质性的不同方法相关的权衡可能会增强或混淆我们对结果及其产生过程的理解。因此,问题出现了:如何在将人类行为建模为人口规模现象的一部分时纳入异质性,从而获得更好的理解?我们使用基于代理的模型来比较在初始化时引入异构或在模型运行时生成异构的技术。我们表明,具有非结构化异质性的初始化可能会干扰对紧急过程的结构性理解,特别是当结构异质性可能是驱动行为反应如何动态塑造系统中出现的关键部分时。我们发现,纳入实证人口异质性——即使在有限的意义上——可以大大有助于提高对所研究系统如何运作的理解。©2022,萨里大学。版权所有。
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Structural Effects of Agent Heterogeneity in Agent-Based Models: Lessons from the Social Spread of COVID-19
Modeling human behavior in the context of social systems in which we are embedded realistically requires capturing the underlying heterogeneity in human populations. However, trade-offs associated with different approaches to introducing heterogeneity could either enhance or obfuscate our understanding of outcomes and the processes by which they are generated. Thus, the question arises: how to incorporate heterogeneity when modeling human behavior as part of population-scale phenomena such that greater understanding is obtained? We use an agent-based model to compare techniques of introducing heterogeneity at initialization or generated during the model’s runtime. We show that initializations with unstructured heterogeneity can interfere with a structural understanding of emergent processes, especially when structural heterogeneity might be a key part of driving how behavioral responses dynamically shape emergence in the system. We find that incorporating empirical population heterogeneity – even in a limited sense – can substantially contribute to improved understanding of how the system under study works. © 2022, University of Surrey. All rights reserved.
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