中非共和国适应气候变化与农业发展——以西北地区为例

Serge Kevin Gildas Soule Baoro, Shaoxian Song, Clifford James Fagariba
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引用次数: 1

摘要

中非西北部农民对民族天气气候变化的认识是基于当地的经验来解释和理解最近的气候变化。利用社会人类学调查(访谈、问卷调查和焦点小组)的工具和技术,这些农民对气候变化的了解得到了充分利用。结果显示,超过80%的人注意到强烈的阳光,这实际上是表达更高温度的方式。暗示气候变化的事实,包括降雨天数和雨季持续时间的减少,雨季提前到来和晚退,动植物物种和季节的消失,宣布种植日历的中断。这些气候扰动导致农民制定策略,以适应观察到的变化的内生后果。观测到的民族传统气象数据可以帮助分析中非西北部气候变化的实际影响。共抽样调查了225名小农,并在焦点小组讨论中使用了100名关键信息提供者。logistic回归模型表明,教育、交通、收入、投入成本和推广服务是影响农民适应气候变化能力的主要因素。此外,用于衡量极端天气的加权平均指数表明,干旱和温度的发生率最高。改变种植日期、改良作物品种、混作和轮作是最受欢迎的做法。该研究得出的结论是,如果政府和相关组织加强适应运动,并培训农民适应适应性做法,包括使用改良种子、补贴、增加农业推广机构和提供灌溉设施,农民的适应能力就可以提高。这些都是提高气候变化适应能力的良好干预措施。
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Climate Change Adaptation and Agricultural Development in Central Africa Republic-Evidence of North-West
Farmers' perceptions ethno-weather climate change in the North-west of Central African local knowledge is based on experiences to explain and understand the recent climate change. These farmers' knowledge on climate change has been capitalized using the tools and techniques of socio-anthropological investigations (interview, questionnaire and focus group). The results show that over 80% of people have noted strong sunlight which is in fact the way to express higher temperatures. Facts suggestive manifestations of climate change including reducing the number of days of rain and the duration of the rainy season, early arrival and late withdrawal of the harmattan, the disappearance of animal and plant species and seasons announcing the disruption of the cropping calendar. These climatic perturbations lead the peasantry to develop strategies to adapt to endogenous consequences of the observed changes. Perceptions ethno-conventional meteorological data observed face can help analyze the real impacts of climate change in the North-western of Central African. A total of 225 small-scale farmers were sampled for survey and 100 key informants were used in focus group discussions. The logistic regression model used in the study indicated that education, transportation, income, inputs cost and extension services were the factors with high tendency of undermining farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change. In addition, Weighted Average Index used to measure weather extremes established that drought and temperature had the highest level of occurrence. Change in planting date, improved crops varieties, mixed cropping, and land rotation was the most preferred practices. The study concluded that farmer’s resilience could be enhanced if governments and concern organizations intensify adaptation campaigns and train farmers on adaptable practices including, use of improved seeds, subsidies, increasing Agriculture Extension Agents and provision of irrigation facilities were also good interventions to improve climate change resilience.
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