应用广义有序logit模型分析城市老年驾驶员交通事故伤害严重程度特征——以韩国首尔市为例

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2021-03-22 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2021.1898068
Jiwon Lee, T. Gim
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引用次数: 9

摘要

随着韩国人口老龄化速度的加快,涉及老年司机的交通事故已成为一个严重的社会问题。本研究旨在探讨环境特征对韩国首尔老年司机事故伤害严重程度的影响。为了达到这一目的,本研究将老年司机分为以下两组:65-69岁的中老年司机和69岁以上的中老年司机。该研究还分析了30至64岁的非老年司机作为比较组。本研究采用了广泛用于分析有序尺度数据的广义有序logit模型。研究结果表明:(1)不同年龄组交通事故的伤害严重程度特征存在较大差异。(2)在交通流量大的地区和可能给老年驾驶员造成复杂驾驶条件的设施中,老年驾驶员的事故严重程度风险增加;(3)由于老年驾驶员在复杂的驾驶环境中往往需要较长的反应时间,因此老年驾驶员面临的致命伤害风险高于年轻驾驶员,这增加了交通事故的风险。因此,为了减少涉及老年驾驶员的交通事故,交通安全政策既要考虑环境特征,也要考虑老年驾驶员因年龄增长和认知反应时间延长而产生的困难的人为因素。本研究不仅分析了主要用于交通事故分析的事故特征(人为因素、道路状况、天气),还分析了与首尔市城市特征有关的环境因素,以比较不同年龄组的交通事故风险和事故严重程度,从而对涉及老年驾驶员的交通事故进行了研究。
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Analysing the injury severity characteristics of urban elderly drivers’ traffic accidents through the generalised ordered logit model: A case of Seoul, South Korea
Abstract As ageing population is growing faster, traffic accidents involving elderly drivers become a serious social problem in South Korea. The present study aims to examine the impact of environmental characteristics on the injury severity of accidents involving elderly drivers in Seoul, South Korea. To achieve the purpose, the study divided elderly drivers into the following two groups: young-elderly drivers aged 65–69 years and middle- and old-aged drivers over 69 years old. The study also analysed non-elderly drivers aged 30 to 64 years as the comparative group. The study used the generalised ordered logit model, which is widely used to analyse data with ordinal scales. The findings from the study draw attention to the fact that (1) the characteristics of traffic accidents by injury severity considerably differed by age group. (2) risk of accident severity involving elderly drivers increase in areas with heavy traffic volumes and facilities that may create a complex driving condition to elderly drivers, (3) since elderly drivers tend to require longer response time with impaired vision under complex driving environment, it increased the risk of traffic accidents that older drivers face a higher risk of fatal injuries than younger counterparts. Thus, in order to reduce traffic accidents involving elderly drivers, the traffic safety policies should take environmental characteristics as well as the human factor concerning elderly drivers’ difficulties because of ageing and longer cognitive response time. This study contributes to the research in traffic accidents involving elderly drivers in that not only the accident characteristics (human factors, road condition, weather), mostly used for traffic accident analysis, but also environmental factors concerning the urban characteristics of Seoul Metropolitan City were analysed to compare the risk of traffic accidents and accident severity by age groups.
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CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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