货币政策传导机制的政策利率通道检验

F. Malik, Deepanjali Das, L. Janjua, H. Adam
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摘要

在金融和经济改革不变的背景下,目标变量对印度储备银行(RBI)政策信号的响应范围和速度可能会发生变化。从货币政策到实体部门的传导滞后的结果是不容置疑的。本研究中使用的经验方法是VAR模型、小波、协整和误差校正技术的自然进展,用于克服与非平稳时间序列数据相关的伪回归问题。在一次冲击引起不平衡后,调整的速度和程度恢复到平衡状态,但有一定的时间滞后。结果表明,在两步验证模型中,WACMR对政策利率变化的完全响应大约需要2.851个月,而在第二步验证模型中,随着隔夜货币市场和存款利率的变化,基本利率达到完全传递大约需要10.33个月。
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A Policy Rate Channel Testing of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism
Against the backdrop of invariant financial and economic reforms, there are presumptive changes in the confines and speed with which target variables respond to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy signals. The result of transmission lags from monetary policy to the real sector is unmistakable. The empirical approach used in this study is a natural progression from the VAR model videlicet, co-integration, and error correction techniques used to overcome the problem of spurious regression associated with non-stationary time-series data. After a shock induces disequilibrium, the speed and degree of adjustment return to a balanced state but with some time lag. The results indicate that in the two-step verification model, it takes approximately 2.851 months for WACMR to fully respond to a change in policy rates, whereas in the second step, it takes approximately 10.33 months for base rates to reach their complete pass-through following changes in call money market and deposit rates.
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