信念启发与行为激励相容性

IF 10.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS American Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI:10.1257/aer.20201248
David Nils Danz, L. Vesterlund, Alistair J. Wilson
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引用次数: 35

摘要

主观信念对经济推理至关重要,但行为可能会挑战这种推断。我们提出,信念的启发应该是激励相容的,不仅在理论上,而且在事实上的行为意义。为了证明这一点,我们证明了二值化评分规则,一种最先进的启发,违反了行为激励兼容性的两个弱条件:(i)在启发中,关于激励的信息增加了对真实报告的偏差;(2)在对一组激励进行纯选择时,大多数人偏离了理论化的最大化者。此外,我们证明偏差是系统性的和中心偏见的,并且引发的信念实质上扭曲了推理。(凝胶d83, d91)
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Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility
Subjective beliefs are crucial for economic inference, yet behavior can challenge the elicitation. We propose that belief elicitation should be incentive compatible not only theoretically but also in a de facto behavioral sense. To demonstrate, we show that the binarized scoring rule, a state-of-the-art elicitation, violates two weak conditions for behavioral incentive compatibility: (i) within the elicitation, information on the incentives increases deviations from truthful reporting; and (ii) in a pure choice over the set of incentives, most deviate from the theorized maximizer. Moreover, we document that deviations are systematic and center-biased, and that the elicited beliefs substantially distort inference. (JEL D83, D91)
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来源期刊
CiteScore
18.60
自引率
2.80%
发文量
122
期刊介绍: The American Economic Review (AER) stands as a prestigious general-interest economics journal. Founded in 1911, it holds the distinction of being one of the nation's oldest and most esteemed scholarly journals in economics. With a commitment to academic excellence, the AER releases 12 issues annually, featuring articles that span a wide spectrum of economic topics.
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