Risk Assessment of Addiction and Tobacco Misuse in Community of the Rural Older Adult, Using Monte Carlo Simulation Sampling

Background: Illegal drug abuse is an important challenge that is not adequately addressed with respect to gerontology in rural areas. Patients and Methods: In this cross-sectional study 641 people aged 60 years or older supported by rural health centers in Southern Iran were investigated (310 and 331 men and women, respectively). To take a sample size of 326, snowball sampling was used. Then, the sample size was developed and simulated to 1.65 million rural elderly using the Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping technique (upon the 2016 national census), calculated in SPSS V.25. The ASSIST-WHO, 2017 instrument was used to collect the data. Results: A significant difference was found between the mean sub-variables of marital status using the MANOVA. Widowhood and divorce had more impact on the tendency to addiction compared to the other factors on marital status. Nomads and farmers were more vulnerable to be addicted than those occupied in the public sector. It was also confirmed by the Eta2 coefficient that older men feeling loneliness have a higher tendency to commit risky behaviors. Conclusions: Being a nomad or framer and widowhood and divorce increased the tendency of male elderly towards illegal drugs. Further studies are required to develop guidelines for policy-makers concerning the rural aging community.