拉美和美国股市的共同走势:金融危机后的趋同?

Andrés Ramírez Hassan, Javier Pantoja
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摘要

当前,世界正面临着一个各方面不断融合的过程,金融市场也不例外。尽管全球一体化是渐进的,但人们可以找到一些可能有助于加速这一趋势的具体事件。本文表明,在主要发生在美国的2008年金融危机之后,拉丁美洲股票市场表现出更高的趋同水平,这是通过其股票市场指数年收益率的相关性来衡量的。此外,我们发现拉丁美洲和美国股票市场之间的敏感度系数趋同,在区域层面上使用动态线性模型。特别是,我们发现,在金融危机之后,拉美指数的日年回报率与标准普尔指数之间的敏感性水平出现了一致的变化。这种趋同可能是加速拉美股票市场一体化进程的一个积极信号,拉美股市自几年前开始发展缓慢。
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Co-Movements between Latin American and U.S. Stock Markets: Convergence after the Financial Crisis?
Currently, the world is facing a continuous process of integration in di fferent aspects and fi nancial markets are no exception to this development. Despite the fact that global integration is gradual, one can fi nd some specfi c events that might help to accelerate this trend. This paper shows that after the fi nancial crisis of 2008, which mainly occurred in the United States, the Latin American stock markets exhibit a higher level of convergence, measured by the correlation between the annual returns of their stock market indices. Additionally, we find convergence in the coe ficient of sensitivity between Latin American and U.S. stock markets, using dynamic linear models at the regional level. In particular, we uncover consistent movements in the levels of sensitivity between the daily annual returns of the Latin American indices and the S&P index after the fi nancial crisis. This kind of convergence might be a positive sign to accelerate the integration process in Latin America stock markets, which has had a slow development since its beginning a few years ago.
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