The Puzzle of Expansionary Welfare Reforms under Harsh Austerity: Explaining the Italian Case

ABSTRACT Although austerity carried the day in crisis-ridden Southern Europe, expansionary welfare measures also emerged alongside retrenchment in countries where left-leaning coalitions were in government and anti-establishment parties on the rise. By focusing on the case of Italy (2013–2018), this article investigates the political dynamics that favoured expansionary welfare measures under austerity. We triangulate qualitative and quantitative evidence and show that, constrained by EU conditionality abroad, the reform agenda of the Italian centre-left first sought the support of middle- and upper-class constituencies at home. However, the deteriorating social situation, the divide that emerged within the centre-left under the leadership of Matteo Renzi, and the rise of the pro-welfare Five Star Movement reshuffled the social policy priorities of the centre-left.