COVID-19大流行数据的流行病学SIR模型观察

Q4 Social Sciences Revista Mexicana De Fisica E Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI:10.31349/revmexfise.18.35
S. Rojas
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文表明,在2020年1月22日至6月4日期间,当前冠状病毒COVID-19大流行的累计康复和死亡人数的综合数据集符合流行病学传染病模型的Kermack和McKendrick近似解。然后,作为这项工作的一项原创贡献,在了解任何流行病的传染期的基础上,提出了一种方法,在流行病可以用{\sir}模型描述的情况下,有助于找到落在该流行病观测数据上的完整{\sir}模型的数值解。该方法首先通过找到{\sir}模型的解来说明,该模型落在Kermack和McKendrick分析的1905-06年孟买瘟疫的流行数据上。然后,将该方法应用于分析先前考虑的冠状病毒COVID-19大流行数据集。此外,由于{\sir}模型的Kermack和McKendrick近似解来自求解Riccati型微分方程,通常在学习(在物理入门课程中)物体在电阻介质上的垂直运动时发现,因此在文章中给出了足够的细节,因此流行病学{\sir}模型可以作为一个额外的例子来增强和丰富本科课程。医学和/或计算建模。
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Observing the epidemiological SIR model on COVID-19 pandemic data
This article shows that in the period January 22-June 04, 2020, the combined  data set of cumulative  recoveries and deaths from the current coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic falls on the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the epidemiological {\sir} contagious disease model. Then, as an original contribution of this work, based on the knowledge of the infectious period of any epidemic, a methodology is presented that helps to find numerical solutions of the full {\sir} model that falls on the observed data of the epidemic in case it could be described by the {\sir} model. The methodology is first illustrated by finding a solution of the {\sir} model that falls on the epidemic data of the Bombay plague of 1905-06 analyzed by Kermack and McKendrick. After that, the methodology is applied on analyzing the previously considered coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic data set. Moreover,  since the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the {\sir} model comes from solving a Riccati type differential equation, commonly found when studying (in introductory physics courses) the vertical motion of objects on a resistive medium, enough details are given in the article so the epidemiological {\sir} model can be used as an additional example for enhancing and enriching the undergraduate curriculum Physics courses for Biology, Life Sciences, Medicine and/or Computational Modeling.
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来源期刊
Revista Mexicana De Fisica E
Revista Mexicana De Fisica E 社会科学-科学史与科学哲学
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
14
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Revista Mexicana de Física (Rev. Mex. Fis.) publishes original papers of interest to our readers from the physical science com unity. Language may be English or Spanish, however, given the nature of our readers, English is recommended. Articles are classified as follows: Research. Articles reporting original results in physi­cal science. Instrumentation. Articles reporting original contribu­tions on design and construction of scientific instruments. They should present new instruments and techniques oriented to physical science problems solutions. They must also report measurements performed with the described instrument. Reviews. Critical surveys of specific physical science topics in which recent published information is analyzed and discussed. They should be accessible to physics graduate students and non specialists, and provide valuable bibliography to the specialist. Comments. Short papers (four pages maximum) that assess critically papers by others authors previously published in the Revista Mexicana de Física. A comment should state clearly to which paper it refers.
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