{"title":"COVID-19大流行数据的流行病学SIR模型观察","authors":"S. Rojas","doi":"10.31349/revmexfise.18.35","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This article shows that in the period January 22-June 04, 2020, the combined data set of cumulative recoveries and deaths from the current coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic falls on the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the epidemiological {\\sir} contagious disease model. Then, as an original contribution of this work, based on the knowledge of the infectious period of any epidemic, a methodology is presented that helps to find numerical solutions of the full {\\sir} model that falls on the observed data of the epidemic in case it could be described by the {\\sir} model. The methodology is first illustrated by finding a solution of the {\\sir} model that falls on the epidemic data of the Bombay plague of 1905-06 analyzed by Kermack and McKendrick. After that, the methodology is applied on analyzing the previously considered coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic data set. Moreover, since the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the {\\sir} model comes from solving a Riccati type differential equation, commonly found when studying (in introductory physics courses) the vertical motion of objects on a resistive medium, enough details are given in the article so the epidemiological {\\sir} model can be used as an additional example for enhancing and enriching the undergraduate curriculum Physics courses for Biology, Life Sciences, Medicine and/or Computational Modeling.","PeriodicalId":49600,"journal":{"name":"Revista Mexicana De Fisica E","volume":"1 1","pages":"35-43"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Observing the epidemiological SIR model on COVID-19 pandemic data\",\"authors\":\"S. Rojas\",\"doi\":\"10.31349/revmexfise.18.35\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This article shows that in the period January 22-June 04, 2020, the combined data set of cumulative recoveries and deaths from the current coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic falls on the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the epidemiological {\\\\sir} contagious disease model. Then, as an original contribution of this work, based on the knowledge of the infectious period of any epidemic, a methodology is presented that helps to find numerical solutions of the full {\\\\sir} model that falls on the observed data of the epidemic in case it could be described by the {\\\\sir} model. The methodology is first illustrated by finding a solution of the {\\\\sir} model that falls on the epidemic data of the Bombay plague of 1905-06 analyzed by Kermack and McKendrick. After that, the methodology is applied on analyzing the previously considered coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic data set. Moreover, since the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the {\\\\sir} model comes from solving a Riccati type differential equation, commonly found when studying (in introductory physics courses) the vertical motion of objects on a resistive medium, enough details are given in the article so the epidemiological {\\\\sir} model can be used as an additional example for enhancing and enriching the undergraduate curriculum Physics courses for Biology, Life Sciences, Medicine and/or Computational Modeling.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49600,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Revista Mexicana De Fisica E\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"35-43\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Revista Mexicana De Fisica E\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.31349/revmexfise.18.35\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"Social Sciences\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Revista Mexicana De Fisica E","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.31349/revmexfise.18.35","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
Observing the epidemiological SIR model on COVID-19 pandemic data
This article shows that in the period January 22-June 04, 2020, the combined data set of cumulative recoveries and deaths from the current coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic falls on the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the epidemiological {\sir} contagious disease model. Then, as an original contribution of this work, based on the knowledge of the infectious period of any epidemic, a methodology is presented that helps to find numerical solutions of the full {\sir} model that falls on the observed data of the epidemic in case it could be described by the {\sir} model. The methodology is first illustrated by finding a solution of the {\sir} model that falls on the epidemic data of the Bombay plague of 1905-06 analyzed by Kermack and McKendrick. After that, the methodology is applied on analyzing the previously considered coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic data set. Moreover, since the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the {\sir} model comes from solving a Riccati type differential equation, commonly found when studying (in introductory physics courses) the vertical motion of objects on a resistive medium, enough details are given in the article so the epidemiological {\sir} model can be used as an additional example for enhancing and enriching the undergraduate curriculum Physics courses for Biology, Life Sciences, Medicine and/or Computational Modeling.
期刊介绍:
The Revista Mexicana de Física (Rev. Mex. Fis.) publishes original papers of interest to our readers from the physical science com unity. Language may be English or Spanish, however, given the nature of our readers, English is recommended. Articles are classified as follows:
Research. Articles reporting original results in physical science.
Instrumentation. Articles reporting original contributions on design and construction of scientific instruments. They should present new instruments and techniques oriented to physical science problems solutions. They must also report measurements performed with the described instrument.
Reviews. Critical surveys of specific physical science topics in which recent published information is analyzed and discussed. They should be accessible to physics graduate students and non specialists, and provide valuable bibliography to the specialist.
Comments. Short papers (four pages maximum) that assess critically papers by others authors previously published in the Revista Mexicana de Física. A comment should state clearly to which paper it refers.