基于异方差扩展层次有序概率模型的公交车碰撞严重程度影响因素研究

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2021.1941460
Jinxing Shen, Hongyan Gu, Xuejun Feng, Miao Yu, Changjiang Zheng
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引用次数: 4

摘要

一起公共汽车事故不可避免地影响了许多乘客,造成了严重的后果。然而,很少有研究全面地分析公共汽车碰撞的严重程度。据此,本研究利用2017-2019年英国发生的公交车事故数据,构建了具有异方差的扩展层次有序概率模型(HHOPIT),研究公交车事故严重程度的影响因素。使用AIC和BIC指标,我们确认考虑变量异质性对阈值和误差项的影响对于解释公交车碰撞严重程度至关重要。其中,正面碰撞、湿路和中速限制变量产生异方差,显著影响碰撞严重程度。此外,翻车碰撞、多车碰撞和早晨碰撞变量诱导阈值可变性。基于变量的边际效应,确认路段、正面碰撞、湿路、路口出口和主干道变量增加了严重伤害的可能性。此外,轻伤作为后果的概率随着低速限制、环岛、城市碰撞、停车碰撞和中速限制变量的影响而增加。本研究还确定了对公共汽车和乘用车碰撞后果有不一致影响的因素。为了改善巴士服务的安全性,当局必须仔细考虑影响巴士碰撞严重程度的因素的异质性和特殊性,并适当制定有针对性的政策。
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Investigation of factors contributing to bus-crash severity based on extended hierarchical ordered probit model with heteroscedasticity
Abstract A bus-involved crash unavoidably affects many passengers, causing severe consequences. Nonetheless, few studies have been comprehensively conducted to analyze the bus-crash severity. Accordingly, using the data of the bus crashes that have occurred in the UK in 2017–2019, this study constructs an extended hierarchical ordered probit model with heteroscedasticity (HHOPIT) to investigate the factors influencing bus-crash severity levels. Using AIC and BIC indicators, we confirm that considering the impact of variable heterogeneity on the threshold and error term is essential for interpreting bus-crash severity. Particularly, the frontal-impact-crash, wet-road, and moderate-speed-limit variables produce heteroscedasticity and significantly affect the crash severity level. Additionally, overturned-crash, multi-vehicle-crash, and morning-crash variables induce threshold variability. Based on the marginal effect of variables, it is confirmed that road-section, frontal-impact-crash, wet-road, junction-exit, and main-way variables increase the likelihood of severe injuries. Furthermore, the probability of slight injuries as consequences, increases with the influence of lower-speed-limit, roundabout, urban-crash, parking-crash, and moderate-speed-limit variables. This study additionally determines the factors that have inconsistent effects on the consequence of bus and passenger-car crashes. To improve the safety of bus services, the authorities must carefully consider the heterogeneity and specificities of the factors affecting bus-crash severity and appropriately formulate targeted policies.
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CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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