The Cost to the Bali Beef Industry of the October 2002 Terrorist Attack

The island of Bali is one of the main cattle producing areas for Indonesia. Bali is also known for its extensive tourist sector. Frozen and chilled beef are imported to fulfil the tourist demand. This imported beef, most of it from Australia, competes with the local beef in the tourist sector. The terrorist attack in October 2002 caused the tourist industry to collapse and this impact has been passed down to the demand for local and imported beef. The objective of this paper is to use an economic model of the Bali beef industry to assess the impact of this attack on the Bali beef sector. The results show that there is expected to be a significant welfare loss of Rp 5.43 billion (A$ 1.09 million) to the Bali beef industry over the medium term. Of this, Bali cattle producers are expected to lose Rp 2.57 billion (47 per cent). The quantity of Bali beef demanded by the HRI markets is forecast to drop by about 5 per cent, while imported beef demand is forecast to reduce by about 2 per cent.