税收与经济增长之间的关系。研究案例:中东欧国家

Loredana Andreea Chițoiu, D. Ungureanu
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摘要

经济学家认为,通过直接税和间接税,可以对宏观经济活动产生不同的影响。税收对经济的影响是矛盾的,有研究表明其负面影响,而其他研究则支持税收对国家经济的积极影响。这些争论和相互矛盾的结果是每个国家使用财政政策工具的方式的结果,也是发展水平的结果,以及所使用的研究方法和模型中包含的变量的结果。本研究的目的是调查税收收入和社会保障缴款对国内生产总值的影响,国内生产总值是衡量经济规模的主要指标。小组研究的参考期为2005年至2020年第四季度,实证结果涵盖了中东欧的发展中国家和发达国家。选择2005年作为起始年份的动机是为了突出经济金融危机前后的时期,以分析样本中各州财政制度与经济之间存在的相互作用。研究方法涉及三个异质小组的研究。分析方法为随机效应面板回归,在此基础上证明了财政变量与国内生产总值之间存在显著的正相关关系。研究结果表明,相对于其他影响因素,财政对经济增长的影响较小,但不可忽略,而这些因素在本文的分析中并没有考虑到。
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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAXATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. STUDY CASE: CEE COUNTRIES
Economists argue that macroeconomic activity can be affected differently, through direct taxes and indirect taxes. the impact of tax levies on the economy is contradictory, there are studies that show their negative influence, and others support the positive influence of taxes on the economy of a state. These debates and contradictory results are a consequence of the way of using fiscal policy instruments, within each state, but also of the level of development, as well as of the research method used and the variables included in the model. The objective of the present research refers to the investigation of the impact of tax revenues, but also of social security contributions on the gross domestic product, the main measure of the size of the economy. The reference period within the panel study, it covers the years q12005-q42020, and the empirical results cover both developing and developed nations in the CEE. The choice of year 2005 as the starting period is motivated by highlighting the period before and after the economic-financial crisis, regarding the analysis of the existing interaction between the fiscal system and the economy of the states in the sample. The research methodology involves the study of three heterogeneous panel groups. The analysis method is the random effect panel regression, on the basis of which it was demonstrated that there are significant and positive correlations between the fiscal variables and the gross domestic product. The research results draw attention to the fact that the fiscal effect on the economic growth is lower, but not negligible, in relation to other influencing factors, which were not taken into account in the present analysis.
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