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引用次数: 7

摘要

总结了可能的人为气候变化影响,以及适应能力和控制大气中温室气体浓度的可能性。许多物理和生物系统已经受到观测到的温度升高的影响。讨论了面临风险的主要领域:水文和水资源、农业和粮食安全、陆地生态系统、海洋和沿海地区。提出了欧洲特有的问题。讨论了各种活动部门在温室气体排放中所占的份额以及减少这些排放的可能性。缓解行动的成本和效益可根据上文所述的若干假设进行估算。介绍了主要经济学研究的结果。缓解行动的长期效率与其推广到世界所有国家有关。
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L'humanité face à l'effet de serre additionnel qu'elle crée

The likely anthropogenic climate change impacts are summarized, as well as the adaptation capabilities and the possibilities of controlling the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. A number of physical and biological systems have already been impacted by the observed temperature increases. The main domains at risk are discussed: hydrology and water resources, agriculture and food security, terrestrial ecosystems, oceans and coastal zones. Problems specific to Europe are presented. The share of the various activity sectors in the emission of greenhouse gases and the possibilities of reducing these emissions are discussed. Costs and benefits of mitigation actions can be estimated under a number of assumptions that are recalled. The results of the major economic studies are presented. The long-term efficiency of the mitigation actions is linked with their generalization to all countries in the world.

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Keywords Énergies et climat : quels enseignements pour le futur ? Les énergies renouvelables. État de l'art et perspectives de développement Quel avenir pour les combustibles fossiles ? Les avancées scientifiques et technologiques permettront-elles la poursuite d'un développement soutenable avec les énergies carbonées ? Les perspectives de l'énergie nucléaire dans le cadre des changements climatiques
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