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Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences - Series IIA - Earth and Planetary Science最新文献

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État des connaissances et incertitudes sur le changement climatique induit par les activités humaines 关于人类活动引起的气候变化的知识状况和不确定性
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01678-0
Jean-Claude Duplessy

During the 20th century, the mean temperature of the air at the ground level has increased by 0.6±0.2 °C and the warmest air temperatures occurred after 1980. These were significantly warmer than those of the last millennium. Simultaneously, rain and drought, cold and heat wave frequencies have changed, mountain glaciers retreated and the sea-level increased by ∼10 cm. This warming was at least in part induced by human activities and will continue during the next decades. Its amplitude will depend on the rate of greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosols emissions, i.e. on energetic scenarios. Pending scientific uncertainties include cloud variations and interactions between the physical parts of the climate system and the biogeochemical cycles and the biosphere.

20世纪,地面平均气温上升了0.6±0.2°C,气温最高的时期出现在1980年以后。这一年的气温明显高于上个千年。与此同时,降雨和干旱、寒流和热浪的频率发生了变化,山地冰川退缩,海平面上升了~ 10厘米。这种变暖至少部分是由人类活动引起的,并将在未来几十年持续下去。其幅度将取决于温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶排放的速率,即取决于能量情景。悬而未决的科学不确定性包括云的变化以及气候系统的物理部分与生物地球化学循环和生物圈之间的相互作用。
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引用次数: 14
Auteurs / Authors 作者/作家
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01736-0
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引用次数: 0
Les perspectives de l'énergie nucléaire dans le cadre des changements climatiques 核能在气候变化背景下的前景
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01713-X
Robert Dautray

Electronuclear energy associated with hydrogen production can replace fossil fuels while emitting as few greenhouse gases as renewable energies. Besides waste management for which a solution has to be rapidly demonstrated, other key issues are to be examined to complete the demonstration of the viability of electronuclear energy. First, waste management and evolution of plutonium and its daughters must be considered together. A basic study has already been performed but what else to be done is huge and cannot be achieved in France (because of its geological and geographic features, because of the rural distribution of its population, etc.), except if a substantial and quite focused endeavour could bring concerned populations and workers, protection and confidence – which requires from the latter, represented by their elected representatives and thus by a public authority, that they work out “a general protection and confidence criterion for concerned populations and workers”. The unique solution in order to protect public health from a potential major danger is to bury as soon as possible all of the ultimate waste products, keeping in mind all of the unfavourable factors such as residual power of these products, their mobility in the confining geological beds and then through aquifers. There are so many categories of waste products whose treatment requires different durations, that storing is necessary in order to make them compatible after sorting by means of chemical separation (called reprocessing). Among all of these potential risks, the present-day most serious one, by far, is that of plutonium and its daughters, which are the most potentially radiotoxic. The unique solution consists in a separation of plutonium (and its daughters), followed by its fissions until a rather complete reduction in a product able to be buried after dilution in a matrix (for example, vitrification). But that solution faces serious handicaps. The examination of waste products and especially of the potentially most dangerous and difficult to treat, that is plutonium (and its daughters), leads thus necessarily to a ‘plutonium (and its daughters) plan’. Nuclear safety is a major preoccupation. The French electronuclear stock is a recognized success and when it will be necessary to replace the latter, it will be possible to use the European Pressurized Reactor French-German project; the latter includes protections against very unlikely events and its implementation would be a factor of substantial progress for nuclear safety. Radioprotection, as well as its scientific bases, epidemiology and radiobiology, have funding that is not at the level of the funding devoted to the technical and industrial realizations. As for proliferation, it can be noticed that the countries that have recently at their disposal nuclear weapons have done it independently of their eventual electronuclear stock and furthermore each of the latter used a different scientific and technical

与制氢相关的电子核能可以取代化石燃料,同时排放的温室气体与可再生能源一样少。除了必须迅速证明解决办法的废物管理之外,还必须审查其他关键问题,以完成对电子核能可行性的证明。首先,必须同时考虑废物管理和钚及其子体的演变。已经进行了一项基本的研究,但是要做的事情是巨大的,而且在法国是不可能做到的(因为它的地质和地理特征,因为它的人口分布在农村,等等),除非一个实质性的和相当集中的努力能够给有关的人口和工人带来保护和信心- -这需要后者,由他们选出的代表,从而由公共当局代表,他们制定了“对相关人群和工人的一般保护和信任标准”。为了保护公众健康免受潜在重大危险的影响,唯一的解决办法是尽快掩埋所有最终废物,同时考虑到所有不利因素,如这些产品的剩余能量、它们在受限地质层中的流动性,然后穿过含水层。有许多种类的废物,其处理需要不同的持续时间,储存是必要的,以便在通过化学分离(称为再处理)分类后使它们兼容。在所有这些潜在的危险中,目前最严重的是钚及其子体,它们具有最大的潜在放射性毒性。这种独特的解决方案包括分离钚(及其子元素),然后进行裂变,直到在基质中稀释(例如,玻璃化)后能够将产品完全还原。但这一解决方案面临着严重的障碍。因此,对废料的检查,特别是对可能最危险和最难处理的钚(及其子体)的检查,必然导致一个“钚(及其子体)计划”。核安全是当务之急。法国的电子核储备是公认的成功,当需要取代后者时,可以使用法国-德国的欧洲加压反应堆项目;后者包括防范非常不可能发生的事件,其实施将是核安全取得重大进展的一个因素。放射防护及其科学基础、流行病学和放射生物学的资金与专门用于技术和工业实现的资金水平不同。至于扩散,可以注意到的是,最近拥有核武器的国家是独立于其最终的电子核储备而进行扩散的,而且每个国家都使用了不同的科学和技术程序。至于再处理和扩散之间的最终关系,如果所生产的全部钚能够在电子核库存的反应堆中变性,这个问题应该得到解决。必须指出的是,主要的潜在危险更可能是放射性有毒产品的扩散,负责所有这些问题的ONU部门注意到,近年来东欧的违禁品有所增加。
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引用次数: 9
Rubrique / Scientific fields 学科/科学领域
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01739-6
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引用次数: 0
Présentation/Presentation 外观/演示
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01714-1
Claude Lorius , Bernard Tissot
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引用次数: 0
Énergies et climat : faits et pistes de recherche/Energies and climate : facts 能源和气候:事实和研究方向/能源和气候:事实
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01726-8
Jean Dercourt (Directeur de la publication/Editorial Director)
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引用次数: 0
Experts / Referees 专家/裁判
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01744-X
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引用次数: 0
Sommaire / Contents 目录
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01735-9
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引用次数: 0
L'humanité face à l'effet de serre additionnel qu'elle crée 人类面临着额外的温室效应
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01649-4
Michel Petit

The likely anthropogenic climate change impacts are summarized, as well as the adaptation capabilities and the possibilities of controlling the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. A number of physical and biological systems have already been impacted by the observed temperature increases. The main domains at risk are discussed: hydrology and water resources, agriculture and food security, terrestrial ecosystems, oceans and coastal zones. Problems specific to Europe are presented. The share of the various activity sectors in the emission of greenhouse gases and the possibilities of reducing these emissions are discussed. Costs and benefits of mitigation actions can be estimated under a number of assumptions that are recalled. The results of the major economic studies are presented. The long-term efficiency of the mitigation actions is linked with their generalization to all countries in the world.

总结了可能的人为气候变化影响,以及适应能力和控制大气中温室气体浓度的可能性。许多物理和生物系统已经受到观测到的温度升高的影响。讨论了面临风险的主要领域:水文和水资源、农业和粮食安全、陆地生态系统、海洋和沿海地区。提出了欧洲特有的问题。讨论了各种活动部门在温室气体排放中所占的份额以及减少这些排放的可能性。缓解行动的成本和效益可根据上文所述的若干假设进行估算。介绍了主要经济学研究的结果。缓解行动的长期效率与其推广到世界所有国家有关。
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引用次数: 7
Énergies et climat : quels enseignements pour le futur ? 能源与气候:未来的教训是什么?
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01650-0
Claude Lorius

The warming of our planet caused by human activities has an impact upon the life conditions in our societies. Such a challenge should be addressed, especially within the Academies.

人类活动造成的地球变暖对我们社会的生活条件产生了影响。应该解决这一挑战,特别是在学院内部。
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引用次数: 3
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