用于索赔严重程度建模的截断γ -截断威布尔分布

R. Diandarma, D. Lestari, S. Mardiyati, R. A. Kafi, S. Devila, L. Safitri
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引用次数: 0

摘要

用标准分布对数据建模通常是困难的,因为数据的主体和尾部具有不同的特征。例如,具有右偏和轻尾特征的Gamma分布被认为无法对具有重尾的索赔数量进行建模。然而,模型在车身数据和尾部数据中的正确拟合对风险分析至关重要。因此,在分离数据主体和尾部的阈值处引入拼接分布。本文采用阈值处的剪接分布来对具有重尾的索赔数量进行建模。本文的拼接分布将主体数据的轻尾分布和尾部数据的重尾分布联系起来。本文采用截断Gamma的拼接分布对凤凰城索赔数据进行阈值以下的建模,采用截断Weibull分布对阈值以上的数据进行建模。考虑Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验的结果,可以得出结论,该分布适合建模凤凰城索赔数据集。
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Truncated gamma-truncated Weibull distribution for modeling claim severity
Modeling the data with a standard distribution is usually difficult to do because of the different characteristics of the body and tail in data. For example, Gamma distribution that has the right-skewing and light tail characteristics is considered unable to model the amount of claim that has a heavy tail. However, the correct fit of the model in the body data and tail data is important in analyzing the risk. Therefore, the splicing distribution is introduced at a threshold value that separates the body and the tail of data. In this paper, splicing distribution at a threshold value is used to model the amount of claim that has heavy tails. The splicing distribution in this paper links a light-tailed distribution for the body data and heavy-tailed distribution for the tail data. In this paper, the splicing distribution of the Truncated Gamma is used to model the data of Phoenix City claim below the threshold value and the Truncated Weibull distribution to model the data above the threshold value. By considering the result of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, it can be concluded that this distribution is suitable for modeling Phoenix City claim dataset.
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