俄罗斯平原东部物候季节边界的动态变化(基洛夫,俄罗斯)

T. Shikhova, Kirov Russia Fur Farming, A. Soloviev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用基洛夫(58°36' N, 49°40' E) 1961-2019年物候数据库,分析了季节节律变化的区域特征。计算1981-2010年的平均值。还发现了参数偏离平均值±2σ以上的其他季节节律类型。春、夏、秋的正常起降在2000年代更为明显(50 ~ 70%),而1991 ~ 2000年和2010 ~ 2019年的异常季节(起降日期和持续时间均明显偏离正常值)较为明显。物候季节比率的变率趋势(冬、春较短,夏、秋较长)始于20世纪中叶,并一直持续至今。近30年来,与基准期1961-1990年相比,冬季和春季开始较晚,而夏季和秋季开始较早。冬春持续时间不断缩短。夏天稍微延长了一些。秋天明显变长了。秋冬持续时间(r = -0.65)、秋春持续时间(r = -0.61)呈负相关。所揭示的21世纪物候趋势(季节开始的变化、季节持续时间的变化和时间参数振幅的增加)与现代气候格局的重构是一致的。获得的关于自然季节动态的数据对于评估该区域自然生态系统对天气和气候波动的反应非常重要。
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Dynamics of the Borders of Phenological Seasons in the East of the Russian Plain (Kirov, Russia)
Using the phenological database covering the period of 1961–2019 for Kirov (58°36' N, 49°40' E), the regional features of changes in the seasonal rhythms were analyzed. Mean values were calculated for 1981–2010. Additional types of seasonal rhythms with parameters deviating from the mean values by more than ±2σ were identified. The normal onset of spring, summer, and autumn was more characteristic of the 2000s (50–70%), while the anomalous seasons (with the onset dates and duration deviating significantly from the norm) prevailed in 1991–2000 and 2010–2019, respectively. The trend of variability in the ratio of phenological seasons (shorter winter and spring, longer summer and autumn) began in the middle of the 20th century and has persisted so far. In the last 30 years, compared with the base period of 1961–1990, winter and spring have begun later, but the onsets of summer and autumn have taken place earlier. The duration of winter and spring has kept decreasing. Summer has lengthened slightly. Autumn has become significantly longer. A negative correlation was established between the durations of autumn and winter ( r = –0.65), autumn and spring ( r = –0.61). The revealed phenological trends of the 21st century (the shift in the onset of the seasons, as well as the change in their duration and the increase in the amplitude of their time parameters) have been consistent with the modern restructuring of the climate regime. The data obtained on the dynamics of the natural seasons are important for assessing the response of natural ecosystems in the region to weather and climate fluctuations.
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17 weeks
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