概率验证:计算平台及其在核电厂火灾风险评估中的应用

H. Bui, T. Sakurahara, S. Reihani, E. Kee, Z. Mohaghegh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

最近,学术界、工业界和监管机构越来越多地在核领域使用先进的建模和仿真技术,以提高现有核电站(NPPs)概率风险评估(PRA)中捕获复杂和高度时空现象的真实感。先进的建模和仿真也被用于加速先进核反应堆的风险知情设计、许可和运行。仿真模型的验证传统上依赖于经验验证方法,需要足够的验证数据。然而,在核工业的背景下,这种验证数据通常是昂贵的。为了克服这一挑战并有效支持在PRA和风险知情决策应用中使用仿真模型,开发了一种系统且科学合理的验证方法,即概率验证(PV)方法。该方法利用不确定性分析来支持模拟预测的有效性评估。PV方法的理论基础和方法平台已在本系列的第一篇文章中报道。第二篇论文的目的是计算PV方法,嵌入到集成PRA框架中,并将其应用于核电厂火灾PRA中使用的分层火灾模拟模型。
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Probabilistic Validation: Computational Platform and Application to Fire Pra of Nuclear Power Plants
Recently, there has been an increasing use of advanced modeling and simulation in the nuclear domain across academia, industry, and regulatory agencies to improve the realism in capturing complex and highly spatiotemporal phenomena within the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of existing Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Advanced modeling and simulation have also been used to accelerate the risk-informed design, licensing, and operationalization of advanced nuclear reactors. Validation of simulation models traditionally relies on empirical validation approaches which require enough validation data. Such validation data are, however, usually costly to obtain in the contexts of the nuclear industry. To overcome this challenge and to effectively support the use of simulation models in PRA and risk-informed decision-making applications, a systematic and scientifically justifiable validation methodology, namely, the Probabilistic Validation (PV) methodology, has been developed. This methodology leverages uncertainty analysis to support the validity assessment of the simulation prediction. The theoretical foundation and methodological platform of the PV methodology have been reported in the first paper of this two-part series. The purpose of this second paper is to computationalize the PV methodology, embedded in an Integrated PRA framework, and apply it for a hierarchical fire simulation model used in NPP Fire PRA.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
13.60%
发文量
34
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