赌徒谬误的数学剖析

Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI:10.1080/09332480.2022.2038998

Steven Tijms

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引用次数: 1

摘要

50年前，阿莫斯·特沃斯基(Amos Tversky)和丹尼尔·卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)提出了对赌徒谬误的经典解释，将赌徒谬误描述为一种由人类判断的心理构成造成的认知偏差。我们将证明，赌徒谬误实际上不是一种心理现象，而是植根于反直觉的概率数学。

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The Mathematical Anatomy of the Gambler’s Fallacy

The classic explanation of the gambler's fallacy, proposed exactly fifty years ago by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, describes the fallacy as a cognitive bias resulting from the psychological makeup of human judgment. We will show that the gambler's fallacy is not in fact a psychological phenomenon, but has its roots in the counter-intuitive mathematics of chance.

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Chance (New York, N.Y.)

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