伊拉克水资源分配效益评价优化模型的应用研究

Ahmed A. Aljanabi, L. Mays, P. Fox
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中东水资源短缺的严重程度是该区域稳定的一个重要因素,也是保护该区域持续经济发展的一个重要因素。本调查通过考察各种用水分配制度对农场和流域层面的盈利能力的影响,解决了伊拉克水治理面临的持续挑战。采用三种水资源分配制度对伊拉克农田灌溉进行了评价;上游(UPR)、下游(DPR)和比例(PSR)共享规则。利用灌溉水模型和非线性规划优化模型,对正常供水、干旱供水和干旱供水情景下的农业收入影响进行了评估。与普遍定期审议相比,在干旱和干旱供应条件下,PSR分别使底格里斯河的农业总收入增加了32%和75%。与DPR相比,在干旱和干旱供应条件下,PSR分别为幼发拉底河提供了47%和83.5%的农业总收入增长。本研究的结果旨在为伊拉克的决策者提供指导,以应对未来供水减少的潜在情况,并证明采用PSR作为一种替代和有效的水资源分配规则是如何可行的,因为它在干旱季节提供公平水资源分配的灵活性。
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Study on Application of an Optimization Model for Assessing the Performance of Water Appropriation in Iraq
The magnitude of water resources shortages in the Middle East represents an important factor in the stability of the region and it is a vital element in protecting sustained economic development in the region. This investigation addresses the ongoing challenge of water governance in Iraq by examining how profitability, at both the farm and basin levels, is affected by various water appropriation systems. Farmland irrigation in Iraq was evaluated using three water appropriation systems; upstream (UPR), downstream (DPR) and proportional (PSR) sharing rule. Their impacts on farm income under normal, dry, and drought water supply scenarios were evaluated using an irrigation water model coupled with a nonlinear programming (NLP) optimization model.  As compared to UPR, PSR provided a 32% and 75% increase in total farm income for the Tigris River under dry and drought supply conditions, respectively.  As compared to DPR, PSR provided a 47% and 83.5% increase in total farm income for the Euphrates River under dry and drought supply conditions, respectively. The results from this study are intended to provide guidance for decision makers in Iraq for potential future conditions where water supplies are reduced and demonstrate how it is feasible to adopt the PSR as an alternative and efficient water allocation rule due to its flexibility of providing fair water resource allocation in drought seasons.
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