利率扭曲理论与资产价格波动

William D. O'Neill
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摘要

有许多交易者的市场以单一价格出清。直观地认为,这样的市场可以被建模为具有多个源输入和单个输出的多通道,这得到了单个股票交易数据的证实和支持。如果一个价格指数交易所的所有股票都是这样交易的,那么该指数的资本资产定价模型(CAPM)应该发现该指数是持有指数股票投资组合的未来回报的预测。通过将香农的利率扭曲定理应用于CAPM,证明了这一推论是正确的,从而结束了长达十年之久的关于CAPM不能解释股票和债券价格波动的争议。从纽约证券交易所的数据被发现是兼容的CAPM利率扭曲函数。与通信系统渠道相比,市场渠道不能以渠道容量运行,而是以交易者获利了结所需的相互信息速率运行。这个汇率与交易者信息源的汇率扭曲函数相比较,决定了市场可以预期的最小价格扭曲。
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Rate distortion theory and the volatility of asset prices

A market with many traders clears at a single price. The intuition that such a market can be modeled as a multiple access channel with many source inputs and a single output is confirmed and supported by single stock trading data. If all stocks in an exchange with a price index are so traded, then the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) of the index should find the index a prediction of future returns to holding a portfolio of the indexed stocks. This inference is shown to be true by applying Shannon's rate distortion theorem to the CAPM, and thereby ending the decade-old controversy that the CAPM cannot explain stock and bond price volatility. Data from the NYSE are found to be compatible with the CAPM rate distortion function. In contrast to communication system channels, market channels cannot operate at channel capacity, but rather at a mutual information rate demanded by trader profit taking. This rate compared to the trader information source rate distortion function determines the minimum price distortion that can be expected of markets.

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