通用e变量的精确顺序k-样本测试,允许可选的停止

Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI:10.1016/j.jspi.2023.106116
Rosanne J. Turner , Alexander Ly , Peter D. Grünwald
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们开发e变量用于测试两个或多个数据流是否来自同一来源,更一般地说,源之间的差异是否大于最小效应大小。这些e变量导致在灵活的采样场景(如可选的停止和继续)下保持安全的精确非渐近测试,即保持其i型误差保证。在特殊情况下,我们的e变量在备选项下也具有最佳的“增长”特性。虽然结构是通用的,但我们通过k×2列联表的特殊情况来说明它,即k伯努利流,允许在复合替代方案上合并不同的限制。与模拟中的p值分析和现实世界的2 × 2列联表示例的比较表明,e变量通过其灵活性,通常允许提前停止数据收集-从而保留与经典方法相似的功能-同时还保留扩展或合并数据的选项。
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Generic E-variables for exact sequential k-sample tests that allow for optional stopping

We develop E-variables for testing whether two or more data streams come from the same source or not, and more generally, whether the difference between the sources is larger than some minimal effect size. These E-variables lead to exact, nonasymptotic tests that remain safe, i.e., keep their type-I error guarantees, under flexible sampling scenarios such as optional stopping and continuation. In special cases our E-variables also have an optimal ‘growth’ property under the alternative. While the construction is generic, we illustrate it through the special case of k×2 contingency tables, i.e. k Bernoulli streams, allowing for the incorporation of different restrictions on the composite alternative. Comparison to p-value analysis in simulations and a real-world 2 × 2 contingency table example show that E-variables, through their flexibility, often allow for early stopping of data collection — thereby retaining similar power as classical methods — while also retaining the option of extending or combining data afterwards.

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