非分割双向交通场景下公路轨平交道口碰撞伤害严重程度分析:随机参数logit模型

Qiaoqiao Ren, Min Xu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

多年来,高速公路铁路平交道口(HRGC)在非分隔双向交通场景下的碰撞造成了许多人员伤亡。虽然对多式联运系统的安全至关重要,但这些过境点很少受到关注,以前的研究也没有充分考虑到未观察到的异质性及其潜在的相互影响。为了弥补这些差距,从联邦铁路管理局安全分析系统办公室收集了2019年至2020年在美国发生的HRGC事故。建立了随机参数logit模型,研究了与交叉路口、碰撞、驾驶员、车辆和环境相关的多种因素的影响。本研究表明,不停止行为产生的随机参数具有异质性,受黑暗和土地的影响,具有商业电力指标。此外,研究结果表明,车辆估计速度>时速25英里,火车速度>45英里每小时,在大门周围行驶,老司机,女司机,摩托车,司机在车辆指示灯会增加更严重的伤害结果的可能性。值得注意的是,不利的十字路口表面和卡车指标显示出意想不到的边际效应,通过降低非分割双向交通HRGCs严重伤害结果的可能性。本研究强调了在HRGC事故中考虑未观察到的异质性的重要性。研究结果可作为制定旨在加强公路和铁路安全的有针对性干预措施的基础。
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Injury severity analysis of highway-rail grade crossing crashes in non-divided two-way traffic scenarios: A random parameters logit model

Highway-rail grade crossing (HRGC) crashes in non-divided two-way traffic scenarios have caused numerous fatalities and injuries over the years. Although crucial to the safety of multimodal transportation systems, these crossings have received little attention and previous studies did not fully account for the unobserved heterogeneity and its potential interactive effects. To bridge these gaps, the HRGC crashes occurring between 2019 and 2020 in the United States were collected from the Federal Railroad Administration's Office of Safety Analysis System. A random parameters logit model with heterogeneity in means was developed to investigate the impact of multiple factors associated with crossings, crashes, drivers, vehicles, and the environment. The present study indicates that did not stop behavior generates the random parameter with heterogeneity in means that is influenced by the dark and land with commercial power indicators. Furthermore, the findings show that factors such as estimated vehicle speed > 25 MPH, train speed > 45 MPH, going around the gate, old driver, female driver, motorcycle, and the driver was in vehicle indicators would increase the likelihood of more severe injury outcomes in HRGC crashes. Notably, the adverse crossing surface and truck indicators demonstrate unexpected marginal effects by reducing the likelihood of severe injury outcomes at non-divided two-way traffic HRGCs. This study emphasizes the importance of considering unobserved heterogeneity in the context of HRGC crashes. The findings can serve as a foundation for developing targeted interventions aimed at enhancing road and railway safety.

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