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Relationship between urban traffic crashes and temporal/meteorological conditions: understanding and predicting the effects 城市交通事故与时间/气象条件之间的关系:了解和预测影响
Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100175
Xiao Tang, Zihan Liu, Zhenlin Wei
Urban traffic accidents pose significant challenges to public safety and transportation management. Previous studies have revealed that temporal and meteorological factors are the key contributors to accident rate. Besides the inconsistent observations or lack of exploration in some aspects such as snowfall, fog, wind and daily temperatures, it has been shown that these factors are essentially entangled. Furthermore, existing methodologies of analysis or prediction have been limited to relative risk or traditional models. Hence, this study is centered on understanding the detailed correlations between temporal and meteorological factors and accident rate of two types of crashes – moving vehicle and fixed-object crashes using the traffic accident data from Dalian. Further, by incorporating a diverse set of the features, a prediction model leveraging the random forest algorithm is proposed and proved effective in anticipating accident occurrences on the district level. The feature importance analysis has shown that time period and factors such as holiday, temperature and season are most important factors. The rate is higher on working days and in spring, and collisions of both types peak at 6–7 am. When the highest daily temperature is 27 °C and the lowest is 20 °C or -8 °C, the incidence is relatively higher. On the basis, the recommendations are aimed at optimizing transportation systems, mitigating accident risks, and enhancing public safety in urban environments.
城市交通事故给公共安全和交通管理带来了巨大挑战。以往的研究表明,时间和气象因素是造成事故率的关键因素。除了对降雪、大雾、大风和日气温等某些方面的观测不一致或缺乏探索外,研究还表明这些因素在本质上是相互纠缠的。此外,现有的分析或预测方法仅限于相对风险或传统模型。因此,本研究利用大连市的交通事故数据,重点了解时间和气象因素与两类碰撞事故--移动车辆碰撞事故和固定物体碰撞事故--的事故率之间的详细相关性。此外,通过纳入一系列不同的特征,提出了一个利用随机森林算法的预测模型,并证明该模型可有效预测地区一级的事故发生率。特征重要性分析表明,时间段以及节假日、温度和季节等因素是最重要的因素。工作日和春季的碰撞率较高,两种类型的碰撞在上午 6-7 点达到高峰。当日最高气温为 27 °C,最低气温为 20 °C或-8 °C时,发生率相对较高。在此基础上提出的建议旨在优化交通系统,降低事故风险,加强城市环境中的公共安全。
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引用次数: 0
An assignment-based decomposition approach for the vehicle routing problem with backhauls 有回程的车辆路由问题的基于分配的分解方法
Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100174
Irandokht Parviziomran, Monireh Mahmoudi
In the context of the Vehicle Routing Problem with Backhauls, which involves delivering to linehaul and picking up from backhaul customers, we propose a novel mathematical model that can decompose the main problem into three sub-problems: two Open Vehicle Routing Problems and one Assignment Problem. In our proposed model, Open Vehicle Routing Problems optimize routes for homogeneous vehicles serving linehaul/backhaul customers, while the Assignment Problem matches linehaul and backhaul routes. We utilize Lagrangian decomposition approach and solve subproblems in parallel and sequential layouts. We measure the performance of the foregoing arrangements (in terms of solution quality and computational efficiency) by testing our model on two benchmark datasets, proposed by Goetschalckx and Jacobs-Blecha (1989) and Toth and Vigo (1997) and are known as GJ and TV datasets in the extant literature, respectively. Our model matches best known solutions in 35 % and 33 %, with most within 2 % deviation, for GJ and TV instances, respectively. We also showcase our model on a real-world transportation network containing 100, 250, and 500 customers and geographically located in Lansing, Michigan. To reduce the computational burden of solving the Vehicle Routing Problem with Backhauls on the Lansing dataset, we present a cluster first-route second algorithm and then analyze the impact of vehicle capacity on the solution quality of our proposed algorithm.
有回程的车辆路由问题涉及向线路运输客户送货和从回程客户处取货,在此背景下,我们提出了一个新颖的数学模型,可将主问题分解为三个子问题:两个开放式车辆路由问题和一个分配问题。在我们提出的模型中,"开放式车辆路由问题 "优化为线路/回程客户服务的同质车辆的路线,而 "分配问题 "则匹配线路和回程路线。我们采用拉格朗日分解法,以并行和顺序布局的方式解决子问题。我们通过在 Goetschalckx 和 Jacobs-Blecha(1989 年)以及 Toth 和 Vigo(1997 年)提出的两个基准数据集上测试我们的模型来衡量上述安排的性能(在解决方案质量和计算效率方面),这两个数据集在现有文献中分别称为 GJ 和 TV 数据集。对于 GJ 和 TV 实例,我们的模型与已知最佳解决方案的匹配率分别为 35% 和 33%,偏差大多在 2% 以内。我们还在位于密歇根州兰辛市的一个包含 100、250 和 500 个客户的真实交通网络上展示了我们的模型。为了减轻在兰辛数据集上解决带有回程的车辆路由问题的计算负担,我们提出了一种集群先行-路由后行算法,然后分析了车辆容量对我们提出的算法的求解质量的影响。
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引用次数: 0
An adapted savings algorithm for planning heterogeneous logistics with uncrewed aerial vehicles 用于规划无载人飞行器异质物流的调整节约算法
Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100170
Andy Oakey , Antonio Martinez-Sykora , Tom Cherrett
This paper proposes a new extension to the Sustainable Specimen Collection Problem (SSCP), where medical specimens are transported by vans, bikes, and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs, or drones) from local medical practices/offices to a central hospital laboratory for analysis, employing a two-echelon collection approach. Time restrictions from existing operations and literature are also introduced, with the study being formulated as a weighted multi-objective problem seeking to minimise (i) operating costs; (ii) transit times; and (iii) energy/environmental impacts. A new adaptation of the Clarke and Wright Savings Algorithm is subsequently presented to create collection rounds that leverage each mode’s strengths. Subsequently, routes are compiled into workable fixed shifts using a modified bin-packing algorithm in each iteration.
The approach of this study is based on a case study of the UK’s National Health Service (NHS), involving the collection of pathology samples using traditional vans operating within fixed time slots. Using case study data from the Solent region (England), a novel test instance generation methodology was also developed, whereby realistic site positioning and origin-destination travel data are captured to enable effective algorithm experimentation. The findings from applying the proposed algorithm to a set of test instances based on this methodology are subsequently discussed, where it was found that the adapted savings and bin-packing approach produced effective solutions quickly, with 90% of all large instances (200 sites) being solved within 15 min. Further algorithm developments and the application of the devised problem/methodologies are also discussed.
本文对可持续标本采集问题(Sustainable Specimen Collection Problem,SSCP)提出了一个新的扩展,即采用双梯队采集方法,用货车、自行车和无人驾驶飞行器(UAV 或无人机)将医疗标本从当地医疗机构/办公室运送到医院中心实验室进行分析。研究还引入了现有操作和文献中的时间限制,并将其表述为一个加权多目标问题,以寻求最大限度地降低 (i) 运营成本;(ii) 运输时间;(iii) 能源/环境影响。随后,对克拉克和莱特节约算法进行了新的调整,以创建充分利用每种模式优势的收集轮。本研究的方法基于英国国家医疗服务系统(NHS)的一个案例研究,涉及在固定时段内使用传统货车收集病理样本。利用索伦特地区(英格兰)的案例研究数据,还开发了一种新颖的测试实例生成方法,通过该方法可获取真实的站点定位和出发地-目的地旅行数据,从而进行有效的算法实验。随后讨论了基于该方法将所提出的算法应用于一组测试实例的结果,结果发现,经过调整的节省和分仓打包方法能够快速产生有效的解决方案,所有大型实例(200 个站点)中的 90% 都能在 15 分钟内解决。此外,还讨论了算法的进一步发展和所设计问题/方法的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Catastrophic causes of truck drivers’ crashes on Brazilian highways: Mixed method analyses and crash prediction using machine learning 巴西高速公路上卡车司机撞车的灾难性原因:使用机器学习进行混合方法分析和碰撞预测
Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100173
Rodrigo Duarte Soliani , Ana Rita Tiradentes Terra Argoud , Fábio Santiago , Alisson Vinicius Brito Lopes , Nwabueze Emekwuru
Traffic crashes represent a global challenge, especially in Brazil, where one-third of incidents on federal highways involve trucks, highlighting significant economic and safety risks for truck drivers and the community at large. This study focuses on understanding the specific causes of crashes involving trucks on Brazilian highways, using a decade of data from the Federal Highway Police to develop a predictive model aimed at accident prevention. It analyzes historical crash trends, selects attributes for prediction models, trains classifiers, evaluates predictions through confusion matrices, and enhances reliability via cross-validation techniques, aiming to develop an accident prevention tool. The analysis revealed a temporal pattern, with a slowdown in fatal incidents from 2013 to 2016, followed by an upward trend from 2017. MG-381 emerged as the deadliest highway, and single-lane roads were identified as more accident-prone, emphasizing the need for targeted preventive measures. Additionally, machine learning models achieved an accuracy of over 70 %, with XGBoost and LightGBM leading at 73 %, providing reliable insights for road safety interventions. In transportation engineering and road safety research, these findings highlight the importance of data-driven approaches to understand accident dynamics and design effective interventions to mitigate risks on highways, thereby contributing to increased road safety and social well-being.
交通事故是一项全球性挑战,尤其是在巴西,联邦高速公路上三分之一的事故涉及卡车,这给卡车司机和整个社会带来了巨大的经济和安全风险。本研究的重点是了解巴西高速公路上涉及卡车的交通事故的具体原因,利用联邦公路警察局十年来的数据开发一个旨在预防事故的预测模型。研究分析了历史碰撞趋势,为预测模型选择属性,训练分类器,通过混淆矩阵评估预测结果,并通过交叉验证技术提高可靠性,旨在开发一种事故预防工具。分析发现了一个时间规律,即从 2013 年到 2016 年,致命事故呈放缓趋势,随后从 2017 年开始呈上升趋势。MG-381成为死亡人数最多的高速公路,单车道道路被认为更容易发生事故,这强调了采取有针对性的预防措施的必要性。此外,机器学习模型的准确率超过了 70%,其中 XGBoost 和 LightGBM 以 73% 的准确率遥遥领先,为道路安全干预措施提供了可靠的见解。在交通工程和道路安全研究中,这些发现凸显了数据驱动方法对于了解事故动态和设计有效干预措施以降低高速公路风险的重要性,从而有助于提高道路安全和社会福祉。
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引用次数: 0
Reinforcement learning in transportation research: Frontiers and future directions 交通研究中的强化学习:前沿与未来方向
Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100164
Xiongfei Lai , Zhenyu Yang , Jiaohong Xie , Yang Liu

The development of reinforcement learning (RL) provides innovative solutions for various decision-making problems in transportation, often pertaining to integrating advanced vehicular technologies such as connected and autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles. This paper reviews transportation research with RL-based methods over the recent decades. We start with a bibliometric analysis through extensive literature retrieval of 1030 papers from 1996 to 2023. We identify different research areas of RL in transportation, summarizing the most visited research problems. We find that, at the vehicle level, motion and route planning and energy-efficient driving problems have attracted the most attention. Meanwhile, adaptive traffic signal control and management have been the most visited problems at the network level. We discuss several potential future directions, including the migration of RL models from simulations to real-world cases, designing tailored control architectures for complex transportation systems, exploring explainable RL in transportation research to ensure transparency and accountability in decision-making processes, and integrating people and vehicles into transportation systems in a sustainable and equitable manner.

强化学习(RL)的发展为交通领域的各种决策问题提供了创新的解决方案,这些问题通常与互联汽车、自动驾驶汽车和电动汽车等先进车辆技术的集成有关。本文回顾了近几十年来基于 RL 方法的交通研究。我们首先对 1996 年至 2023 年的 1030 篇论文进行了广泛的文献检索,并进行了文献计量分析。我们确定了 RL 在交通领域的不同研究领域,总结了访问量最大的研究问题。我们发现,在车辆层面,运动和路线规划以及节能驾驶问题最受关注。同时,在网络层面,自适应交通信号控制和管理也是最受关注的问题。我们讨论了几个潜在的未来方向,包括将 RL 模型从模拟迁移到真实世界案例、为复杂的交通系统设计量身定制的控制架构、在交通研究中探索可解释的 RL 以确保决策过程的透明度和问责制,以及以可持续和公平的方式将人和车辆整合到交通系统中。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancement of the impacts 2050 model to enable a whole system sustainability assessment of rideshare 加强 "影响 2050 "模型,对共享出行进行全系统可持续性评估
Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100171
Mark Muller , Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia , Seri Park , Yimin Zhang , Brett Fusco , Ross Lee

Emerging concepts, such as Mobility as a Service (MaaS), could evolve to provide sustainable mobility, especially in densely populated urban areas. However, recent studies highlight the challenge of evaluating how the complex interactions of user demographics, mode choice, vehicle automation, governance, and efficiency will impact the sustainability of future mobility. Given this challenge, this research identifies a whole system (STEEP - social, technical, economic, environmental, and political) framework as essential to assess the overall sustainability of emergent urban mobility systems such as rideshare. The need is a single tool that can rapidly explore the long-range sustainability impact of such alternative future mobility scenarios for a given city region. This paper documents enhancements made to Impacts 2050, a strategic-level model of urban mobility, to address this need, including updates to the statistical travel behavior model and the addition of rideshare including trip occupancy. Results obtained with the enhanced Impacts 2050 showed that, while rideshare use increased significantly for some scenarios, its overall mode share remained limited. In addition, though rideshare enabled users to shed car ownership, the overall percentage increase of “no car ownership” was low. An urban mobility sustainability scorecard based on STEEP and generated by output from the enhanced Impacts 2050 is presented.

移动即服务(MaaS)等新兴概念可以提供可持续的移动性,尤其是在人口稠密的城市地区。然而,最近的研究强调了评估用户人口、模式选择、车辆自动化、管理和效率之间复杂的相互作用将如何影响未来交通的可持续性所面临的挑战。鉴于这一挑战,本研究确定了一个全系统(STEEP--社会、技术、经济、环境和政治)框架,认为它对于评估共享出行等新兴城市交通系统的整体可持续性至关重要。我们需要的是一种单一的工具,它可以快速探索这种替代性未来交通方案对特定城市地区的长期可持续性影响。本文记录了为满足这一需求而对城市交通战略级模型 Impacts 2050 所做的改进,包括更新出行行为统计模型和增加包括出行占用率在内的共享出行功能。使用增强型 Impacts 2050 得出的结果表明,虽然在某些情景下,共享出行的使用率显著增加,但其总体模式份额仍然有限。此外,虽然共享出行使用户减少了汽车拥有量,但 "不拥有汽车 "的总体增长比例较低。本报告介绍了基于 STEEP 的城市交通可持续性记分卡,该记分卡由《影响 2050》增强版的输出结果生成。
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引用次数: 0
Co-creating multimodal transportation hubs in Switzerland: How to close the gap between actors across different scales, levels, and sectors 在瑞士共同创建多式联运枢纽:如何缩小不同规模、级别和部门的参与者之间的差距
Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100168
Philippe Stadler Benz, Michael Stauffacher

Transforming railway stations and their surroundings into multimodal transportation hubs (MMTHs) involves numerous actors at different scales and from different economic sectors and levels of government. Successful transformations offer a wide range of benefits to sustainable development, including increased public transportation use and mixed-use, high-density station districts. Intensive collaboration and, ideally, co-creation are critical to achieving these outcomes through MMTHs; however, orchestrating all involved actors is challenging and requires supporting methods, and the knowledge required to develop and refine methods is scarce and rarely subjected to systematic analysis. Based on 15 semistructured interviews and two design thinking workshops attended by 13 and 20 MMTH experts, our study shows that the challenges of co-creating MMTHs relate not only to professional matters but also to managing collaboration and implementation among a large number of actors with various roles and interests. In this paper, we develop design guidelines for reviewing and evaluating two current methods and a prototypical method (the functional model) with the goal of identifying potential improvements and supporting MMTH co-creation in Switzerland. These guidelines cover the broad spectrum of co-creation activities, from organization and design collaboration with relevant actors to the development of a shared vision to support financing and the planning process. The functional model encompasses many aspects of the design guidelines and closes gaps between actors across different scales, economic sectors, and governmental levels. Due to the relatively low effort involved, the method can be repeated as needed throughout MMTH development, which often takes several years. Our study demonstrates that existing MMTH co-creation methods require improvement, and the design guidelines developed here suit this purpose. Our work thus contributes to the further development of MMTH co-creation methods, ultimately supporting sustainable development such as CO2 emission reduction and responsible land use.

将火车站及其周边地区改造成多式联运枢纽(MMTH)涉及不同规模、不同经济部门和各级政府的众多参与者。成功的改造可为可持续发展带来广泛的益处,包括提高公共交通的使用率以及建设多功能、高密度的车站区。密集合作以及理想情况下的共同创造对于通过多功能交通枢纽实现这些成果至关重要;然而,协调所有参与方具有挑战性,需要辅助方法,而且开发和完善方法所需的知识非常稀缺,很少进行系统分析。我们的研究基于 15 个半结构式访谈和两次设计思维研讨会,分别有 13 名和 20 名医学培训和保健专家参加,结果表明,共同创建医学培训和保健所面临的挑战不仅涉及专业问题,还涉及管理具有不同角色和利益的大量参与者之间的合作和实施。在本文中,我们制定了设计指南,用于审查和评估当前的两种方法和一种原型方法(功能模型),目的是确定潜在的改进措施,支持瑞士的产妇保健共同创建工作。这些指导方针涵盖了广泛的共同创造活动,从与相关参与者的组织和设计合作,到制定共同愿景以支持融资和规划过程。功能模型涵盖了设计指南的许多方面,缩小了不同规模、经济部门和政府层面的参与者之间的差距。由于所需的工作量相对较小,在整个 MMTH 开发过程中,该方法可根据需要重复使用,而整个开发过程通常需要数年时间。我们的研究表明,现有的 MMTH 共同创造方法需要改进,而这里制定的设计指南正符合这一目的。因此,我们的工作有助于进一步开发 MMTH 共同创造方法,最终支持可持续发展,如减少二氧化碳排放和负责任地使用土地。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring micromobility choice behavior across different mode users using machine learning methods 利用机器学习方法探索不同模式用户的微型交通选择行为
Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100167
Md Al Adib Sarker, Hamidreza Asgari, Afsana Zarin Chowdhury, Xia Jin

In an effort to capture travelers’ propensity towards micro-mobility options, a consumer survey was designed and conducted in the state of Florida in Fall 2021. In addition to collecting socioeconomic, demographic, attitudinal, and trip-related information, stated-preference scenarios were presented to the respondents, in which they were asked to choose between their current mode, and three different micro-mobility alternatives, namely: e-scooter, e-scooter + public transit, and moped. A machine learning classification model, the tree-based Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm was applied to study users’ mode choice toward micromobility options given its non-parametric nature and high predictive power. SHAP values were then used to analyze the contributing factors for each of the micro-mobility options. In addition, Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) was employed to interpret and validate the SHAP findings at the individual prediction level. Model results show that age, car-oriented attitudes, lack of familiarity/previous experience, and lack of appropriate infrastructures were the major barriers to choose micro-mobility services. Such services can be suitable alternatives for young people who come from large families or ride-share users who have prior experience with micromobility services. Among different micro-mobility alternatives, mopeds were favored by males and green travelers. It seems that e-scooter + public transit was considered a safe and comfortable option, especially for students and low-income individuals, but generally not favored by travel time-sensitive or green travelers. Finally, e-scooters seem to be a favorable option for younger individuals with short travel distances. Our findings provide additional insights on policies that may help encourage the use of micromobility devices and promote sustainable, affordable, and equitable mobility services.

为了了解旅行者对微型交通选择的倾向,我们设计了一项消费者调查,并于 2021 年秋季在佛罗里达州进行了调查。除了收集社会经济、人口、态度和出行相关信息外,还向受访者展示了陈述偏好情景,要求他们在当前模式和三种不同的微型交通替代方案(即电动摩托车、电动摩托车+公共交通和轻便摩托车)之间做出选择。鉴于其非参数性质和较高的预测能力,我们采用了一种机器学习分类模型,即基于树的极梯度提升算法,来研究用户对微型交通选择的模式选择。然后,利用 SHAP 值分析了每种微型交通方式的促成因素。此外,还采用了 "本地可解释模型-不可知解释(LIME)"来解释和验证个体预测层面的 SHAP 结果。模型结果表明,年龄、以车为导向的态度、缺乏熟悉/以往经验以及缺乏适当的基础设施是选择微型交通服务的主要障碍。对于来自大家庭的年轻人或有过使用微型交通服务经验的共享乘车用户来说,这类服务可能是合适的替代选择。在不同的微型交通工具中,轻便摩托车受到男性和绿色旅行者的青睐。电动滑板车+公共交通似乎被认为是一种安全舒适的选择,尤其是对于学生和低收入人群来说,但一般不被对出行时间敏感或绿色出行的人所青睐。最后,对于出行距离较短的年轻人来说,电动滑板车似乎是一个有利的选择。我们的研究结果为政策提供了更多启示,这些政策可能有助于鼓励使用微型交通设备,促进可持续、可负担和公平的交通服务。
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引用次数: 0
The role of technology belief, perceived risk and initial trust in users’ acceptance of urban air mobility: An empirical case in China 技术信仰、感知风险和初始信任在用户接受城市空中交通中的作用:中国的经验案例
Pub Date : 2024-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100169
Enjian Yao , Dongbo Guo , Shasha Liu , Junyi Zhang

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is poised to revolutionize transportation, necessitating an assessment of public acceptance before broad commercial adoption. This study presents the Urban Air Mobility Acceptance Model (UAM-AM), which draws from the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and underscores the crucial role of initial trust, technology belief and perceived risk. The UAM-AM is validated using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) based on 544 questionnaires for the first time in China. The findings highlight the significant impact of perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness on acceptance, uncovering a complex interplay with the intention to utilize UAM services. Notably, initial trust emerges as a foundational factor, influencing attitudes directly or indirectly through perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness. Moreover, the research identifies technology belief and perceived risk as fundamental drivers of initial trust. Examination of demographic segments reveals a heightened technology belief among individuals with backgrounds in science, indicative of a more favorable attitude towards UAM adoption. In closing, the paper presents recommendations for policymakers, service providers, and eVTOL manufacturers to formulate effective strategies that promote public acceptance during the initial phases of UAM deployment.

城市空中交通(UAM)有望彻底改变交通方式,在广泛商业应用之前,有必要对公众接受度进行评估。本研究提出了城市空中交通接受度模型(UAM-AM),该模型借鉴了技术接受度模型(TAM),强调了初始信任、技术信仰和感知风险的关键作用。UAM-AM 模型首次在中国通过基于 544 份问卷的结构方程模型(SEM)进行了验证。研究结果凸显了感知易用性和感知有用性对接受度的重要影响,揭示了使用 UAM 服务的意向之间复杂的相互作用。值得注意的是,初始信任是一个基础因素,通过感知易用性和感知有用性直接或间接地影响人们的态度。此外,研究还发现技术信仰和感知风险是初始信任的基本驱动因素。对人口统计学细分群体的研究显示,具有科学背景的人对技术的信念更强,这表明他们对采用 UAM 持更有利的态度。最后,本文为政策制定者、服务提供商和 eVTOL 制造商提出了建议,以制定有效的策略,在 UAM 部署的初始阶段促进公众的接受度。
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引用次数: 0
Accounting for taxi service conditions in estimating route travel time from floating car data using Markov chain model 利用马尔科夫链模型从浮动车数据估算路线旅行时间时考虑出租车服务条件
Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2024.100172
Tianli Tang , Shaopeng Zhong , Yuting Chen , Lichen Luo

Recognising the variations in driving behaviour between taxis in the empty and carry conditions is pivotal for enhancing the accuracy of route travel time estimations using floating car data. However, existing methods largely overlook this distinction. In light of this, this study aims to harness these variations for more precise estimations. Utilising taxi data, we segmented the information by service conditions and executed distinct estimations for each segment. The route travel time was deduced through convolutional operation, complemented by a Markov chain model to discern correlations between travel times across various links. Our innovative approach realised a substantial enhancement in accuracy. Notably, when accounting for distinct service conditions, there was a reduction of 51.44% in mean absolute error and a 46.83% decline in maximum percentage error. By providing more accurate and reliable travel time predictions, our methodology enables better-informed traffic management decisions. Accurate travel time estimations are essential for optimising traffic signal timings, planning efficient routing strategies, and managing road network usage. These improvements in traffic management can lead to smoother traffic flow, reduced travel times, and ultimately, diminished congestion in urban areas.

识别出租车在空载和载客情况下的驾驶行为差异,对于提高利用浮动车数据进行路线旅行时间估算的准确性至关重要。然而,现有的方法在很大程度上忽略了这一区别。有鉴于此,本研究旨在利用这些差异进行更精确的估算。利用出租车数据,我们按服务条件对信息进行了细分,并对每个细分进行了不同的估算。通过卷积运算推导出路线旅行时间,并辅以马尔科夫链模型来辨别各环节旅行时间之间的相关性。我们的创新方法大大提高了准确性。值得注意的是,当考虑到不同的服务条件时,平均绝对误差减少了 51.44%,最大百分比误差下降了 46.83%。通过提供更准确、更可靠的旅行时间预测,我们的方法可帮助做出更明智的交通管理决策。准确的出行时间估算对于优化交通信号时间、规划高效的路线策略和管理道路网络使用情况至关重要。这些交通管理方面的改进可以使交通流更加顺畅,缩短旅行时间,最终缓解城市地区的拥堵状况。
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Multimodal Transportation
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