20世纪60年代以来的希腊:死亡率转变的重新审视:联结点回归分析。

IF 1.6 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1007/s12546-023-09301-2
Konstantinos N Zafeiris
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引用次数: 0

摘要

希腊的死亡率转变在几个方面都是一个得到充分研究的现象。它的特点是出生时和其他年龄段的预期寿命几乎不断增加,同时死亡概率也在下降。本文的范围是对希腊自1961年以来的死亡率过渡进行全面评估,根据整体分析。在本文中,按性别计算了生命表,并检查了几个年龄段的预期寿命的时间趋势。此外,为了验证死亡率模式的时间变化,采用了聚类分析。给出了大年龄组的死亡概率。此外,还分析了死亡分布与各种参数的关系:死亡时的模态年龄、模态、左右拐点和老年堆的长度。在此之前,采用的是源于随机分析的非线性回归方法。此外,还检验了基尼系数、平均个体间差异和生存曲线的四分位数范围。最后,提出了主要死因的标准化比率。用连接点回归分析的方法对所有分析变量的时间趋势进行了学术性检验。1961年以后,希腊的死亡率转变与性别和特定年龄因素不对称,导致出生时预期寿命随着时间的推移而提高。在此期间,老年人的死亡率下降,但速度比年轻人慢。死亡时的模态年龄、模态、左右拐点和老年人口堆的宽度表示该国死亡率的压缩。老年死亡堆向老年转移,同时死亡年龄变异性减小,这可以通过基尼系数和平均个体间差异得到验证。因此,生存曲线的矩形化是明显的。随着时间的推移,这些变化的过渡速度不同,尤其是在经济危机出现之后。最后,死亡的主要原因是循环系统疾病、肿瘤、呼吸系统疾病和其他疾病。这些疾病的时间趋势因疾病和性别而异。希腊的死亡率转变是一个不对称的逐步过程,其特点是具有性别和年龄特征。这个过程,尽管是连续的,但不是线性的。相反,随着时间的推移,一系列严重的事态发展决定了该国的现代死亡率制度。通过更先进的分析方法对希腊死亡率转变的评估可能为评估世界其他国家的死亡率转变提供新的见解和方法选择。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Greece since the 1960s: the mortality transition revisited: a joinpoint regression analysis.

Mortality transition in Greece is a well-studied phenomenon in several of its aspects. It is characterised by an almost constant increase in life expectancy at birth and other ages and a parallel decrease in death probabilities. The scope of this paper is a comprehensive assessment of the mortality transition in Greece since 1961, in the light of holistic analysis. Within this paper, life tables by gender were calculated and the temporal trends of life expectancy at several ages were examined. Moreover, a cluster analysis was used in order to verify the temporal changes in the mortality patterns. The probabilities of death in large age classes are presented. Furthermore, the death distribution was analysed in relation to various parameters: the modal age at death, mode, left and right inflexion points and the length of the old age heap. Before that, a non-linear regression method, originating from the stochastic analysis, was applied. Additionally, the Gini coefficient, average inter-individual differences, and interquartile range of survival curves were examined. Finally, the standardised rates of the major causes of death are presented. All the analysis variables were scholastically examined for their temporal trends with the method of Joinpoint Regression analysis. Mortality transition in Greece after the year 1961 is asymmetrical with a gender and an age-specific component, leading to the elevation of life expectancy at birth over time. During this period, the older ages' mortality decreases, but at a slower pace than that of the younger ones. The modal age at death, mode, the left and right inflexion points and the width of the old age heap denote the compression of mortality in the country. The old age death heap shifts towards older ages, while at the same time, the variability of ages at death decreases, being verified by the Gini Coefficient and average inter-individual differences. As a result, the rectangularization of survival curves is evident. These changes have a different pace of transition over time, especially after the emergence of the economic crisis. Finally, the major causes of death were the diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, diseases of the respiratory system and others. The temporal trends of these diseases differ according to the diseases and gender. Greece's mortality transition is an asymmetrical stepwise process characterised by its gender and age-specific characteristics. This process, despite being a continuous one, is not linear. Instead, a combination of serious developments over time governs the country's modern mortality regime. The evaluation of Greece's mortality transition through the lens of more advanced analytical methods may provide new insights and methodological alternatives for assessing mortality transition in other countries of the world.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
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18
期刊介绍: The Journal of Population Research is a peer-reviewed, international journal which publishes papers on demography and population-related issues. Coverage is not restricted geographically. The Journal publishes substantive empirical analyses, theoretical works, applied research and contributions to methodology. Submissions may take the form of original research papers, perspectives, review articles and shorter technical research notes. Special issues emanating from conferences and other meetings are also considered.
期刊最新文献
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