数据驱动的卡钻预测和补救措施

IF 2.6 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Upstream Oil and Gas Technology Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.upstre.2020.100024
Mohammed F. Al Dushaishi , Ahmed K. Abbas , Mortadha Alsaba , Hayder Abbas , Jawad Dawood
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引用次数: 7

摘要

卡钻事故被认为是钻井阶段非常常见的问题,它会导致非生产时间的增加。常用的推荐做法用于预防或减少这些事件的严重程度。通过使用人工神经网络等不同的非物理技术,根据一些测量参数预测这些事件的能力已经在行业中得到了应用。在这项工作中,使用递归划分分析来建立分类树。这些数据是从伊拉克南部不同油田的385口井中收集的。总共收集了1015个数据点,分为三个数据集:训练、验证和测试。这项工作的主要目标是开发一个模型,该模型包含易于采用的逻辑条件,可以预测卡钻事件,并建议适当的补救措施来释放卡钻。所开发的方法能够使用简单且有限的输入参数,以90%的准确率预测卡钻事件。对于卡钻补救模型,卡钻解钻预测精度达到84%。所提出的卡管事件模型和补救措施预测提供了基于简单数量的逻辑标准,可以很容易地应用于现场。
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Data-driven stuck pipe prediction and remedies

Stuck pipe incidents are considered a very common challenge in the drilling phase, which can result in increasing non-productive time. Common recommended practices are used to prevent or reduce the severity of these incidents. The ability to predict these incidents based on some measured parameters has been applied in the industry by using different non-physical techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks. In this work, recursive partition analysis was used to develop classification trees. The data was collected from 385 wells drilled in Southern Iraq in different fields. A total of 1015 data points were collected and divided into three data sets: training, validation, and testing. The main objective of this work is to develop a model that consists of easily adoptable logical conditions that predict stuck pipe events and suggest an appropriate remedy to free the stuck pipe. The developed method was able to predict stuck pipe events with an accuracy of 90% using simple and limited input parameters. For the stuck pipe remedy model, the accuracy of the prediction for freeing the stuck pipe reached 84%. The proposed models for stuck pipe events and remedy predictions provide logical criteria based on simple quantities that can be easily applied in the field.

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