[Prevalence, incidence and predictive factors of atrial fibrillation in geriatric patients-A prospective observational study].

Background and question: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia in the total population, and previous studies have already reported the prevalence of AF; however, AF is of special importance in geriatric patients due to demographic changes. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine how many geriatric patients have a history of AF (prevalence) and how often AF can be newly diagnosed during an inpatient stay (incidence). Additionally, predictive factors for the incidence of AF in geriatric patients are described.

Study participants and methods: In a monocentric prospective observational study from April 2021 to April 2022, all admissions to a geriatric clinic were included in the study. Data collection was carried out using the patients' digital files. As part of the admission routine, all patients had a 12-lead ECG recorded. Additionally, a 24‑h long-term electrocardiogram (LTECG) was used in a subset of patients depending on the clinical need.

Results: A total of 1914 participants were included in the study. At the time of admission, 715 (37.4%) patients had a known history of AF. Of the remaining 1199 patients without a history of AF, AF could be newly detected in 73 cases (6.1%). Multivariate regression analysis identified age > 80 years (odds ratio, OR: 2.3) and heart failure (OR: 3.5) as significant risk factors for the incidence of AF (each p < 0.05).

Conclusion: Despite an already high prevalence, AF was newly diagnosed in 6% of patients during the stay at a geriatric clinic. Heart failure and age above 80 years were significantly associated with the presence of AF. This should be taken into account when screening for AF in this patient population.