Who Migrates and Who Returns in a Context of Free Mobility? An Analysis of the Reason for Migration, Income and Family Trajectories.

The establishment of free mobility in Europe has lowered barriers to movement and given rise to diversity in migration and integration patterns. However, in part due to data constraints, it is difficult to study migration motives, integration and return migration together. Using linked Finnish and Swedish register data covering the period 1988-2005, we address these processes within the same framework and study how the reason for migration and trajectories at the destination relate to return migration. In particular, we assess the migration motives of 13,948 Finnish migrants in Sweden using pre- and post-migration information. Finland and Sweden have been part of the common Nordic labour market since 1954, which has allowed Nordic citizens to move without barriers between the two countries. We also study how income trajectories and trajectories of family formation differ across the assessed motives, and analyse how return migration risks are shaped by the motive and by trajectories of income and family formation. Results reveal that labour and tied migrants are initially more likely to have family abroad than student migrants. Student migrants instead continue their education and experience a steeper income increase. The income of student migrants eventually catches up and surpasses that of labour migrants. Return migration risks are shaped by trajectories at the destination, but also by the initial migration motive. These findings underline the importance of assessing diversity across migrants to gain a better understanding of how different migrant groups fare in the destination country and how this relates to subsequent moves.