Influence of Pleistocene climate fluctuations on the demographic history and distribution of the critically endangered Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla).

Background: Pleistocene climate fluctuations have strongly modified species genetic diversity and distributions. The Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) has been recognized as a critically endangered animal due to heavy poaching and trafficking. However, the effect of Pleistocene climate fluctuations on the genetic diversity and spatial distribution of the Chinese pangolin remains largely unknown. Here, we combined whole genome sequencing data, analysis of complete mitochondrial genomes, and a large amount of occurrence data from field surveys to infer the ancestral demographic history and predict the past spatial dynamics of the Chinese pangolin in Guangdong Province, China.

Results: Our results indicated that there were two subpopulations, which showed similar trends of population size change in response to past climatic changes. We estimated a peak effective population size (N_e) during the last interglacial (LIG), followed by a marked decrease (~ 0.5 to fivefold change) until the last glacial maximum (LGM) and a rebound to a small peak population size during the Mid-Holocene (MH). The estimated time of the separation event between two subpopulations was approximately 3,000-2,500 years ago (ka). We estimated that the distribution of suitable areas shrank by 14.4% from the LIG to LGM, followed by an expansion of 31.4% from the LGM to MH and has been stable since then. In addition, we identified an elevational shift and suitable area decreased significantly during the LGM, but that the geographic extent of suitable areas in the western region increased from the LIG to present. The eastern region of Guangdong Province had the highest habitat suitability across all the climate scenarios.

Conclusions: Our results suggested that Pleistocene climate fluctuations played an important role in shaping patterns of genetic diversity and spatial distribution, and that human stressors likely contributed to the recent divergence of two Chinese pangolin subpopulations sampled here. We argue that a key protected area should be established in the eastern region of Guangdong Province. As such, this study provides a more thorough understanding of the impacts of Pleistocene climate fluctuations impacts on a mammalian species in southern China and suggests more robust management and conservation plans for this Critically Endangered species of special interest.