Machine Learning Prediction Model and Risk Factor Analysis of Reoperation in Recurrent Lumbar Disc Herniation Patients After Percutaneous Endoscopic Lumbar Discectomy.

Study design: Retrospective, matched case-control study.

Objective: To investigate the risk factors of reoperation after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD) due to recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) and to establish a set of individualized prediction models.

Methods: Patients who underwent PELD successfully from January 2016 to February 2022 in a single institution were enrolled in this study. Six methods of machine learning (ML) were used to establish an individualized prediction model for reoperation in rLDH patients after PELD, and these models were compared with logistics regression model to select optimal model.

Results: A total of 2603 patients were enrolled in this study. 57 patients had repeated operation due to rLDH and 114 patients were selected from the remaining 2546 nonrecurrent patients as matched controls. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that disc herniation type (P < .001), Modic changes (type II) (P = .003), sagittal range of motion (sROM) (P = .022), facet orientation (FO) (P = .028) and fat infiltration (FI) (P = .001) were independent risk factors for reoperation in rLDH patients after PELD. The XGBoost AUC was of 90.71%, accuracy was approximately 88.87%, sensitivity was 70.81%, specificity was 97.19%. The traditional logistic regression AUC was 77.4%, accuracy was about 77.73%, sensitivity was 47.15%, specificity was 92.12%.

Conclusion: This study showed that disc herniation type (extrusion, sequestration), Modic changes (type II), a large sROM, a large FO and high FI were independent risk factors for reoperation in LDH patients after PELD. The prediction efficiency of XGBoost model was higher than traditional Logistic regression analysis model.