CHANGING SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN TODAY’S WORLD AND THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

Uğur Tarcin
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Abstract

Radical changes and transformation of wars had been recently witnessed in the field of security and technology in our world. Economic difficulties faced by the countries, dwindling of defense budgets, the need to use resources more efficiently, struggles with uncertainty in the context of national security and the need for interoperability compelled these countries to transform. The ever-changing environmental conditions and the diversity of complex factors require an analytical preparation process, effective use of intelligence, rapid adaptation to the situation, scientific decision-making methods, knowledge management, leadership, and strategic communication. It is important to be a learning organization, to adopt transformational thinking in following changes, to take measures in line with national interests in security, peace, stability, and prosperity, and to keep national power strong by taking the butterfly effect into account within this period. This article deals with the future analysis of NATO, which is the strongest regional defense alliance, with the transformation of security in the twenty first century, emerging new wars, and the hybrid warfare realized by the execution of new technology and communication methods in this context, the cyber and information wars that stand out in this war.
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当今世界安全环境的变化和蝴蝶效应
最近在我们世界的安全和技术领域目睹了战争的急剧变化和转变。这些国家面临的经济困难、国防预算的减少、更有效地利用资源的需要、与国家安全背景下的不确定性作斗争以及互操作性的需要迫使这些国家进行转型。不断变化的环境条件和复杂因素的多样性要求分析准备过程,有效利用情报,快速适应形势,科学决策方法,知识管理,领导力和战略沟通。要做学习型组织,以变革思维应对变革,在安全、和平、稳定、繁荣等方面采取符合国家利益的措施,在这一时期发挥蝴蝶效应,保持国家强大。本文分析了21世纪安全格局的转变、新型战争的兴起以及在此背景下运用新技术和通信手段实现的混合战争,以及在这场战争中脱颖而出的网络战和信息战对北约这一最强大的区域防御联盟的未来影响。
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