Operation Risk Probability Assessment of Power System Considering the Stochasticity of Renewable Energy

Abstract

The power system is the most important carrier of energy production, transmission, and consumption. Its transformation and upgrading are vital to the realization of China’s "Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality" goal. As the proportion of renewable energy represented by wind power/photovoltaic power in the system increasing continuously, the risk of its strong stochasticity brought to system dispatch has become prominent. In order to quantify the potential risks in the real-time operation of the power system, based on the traditional power system risk assessment theory, this paper proposes an operation risk probability assessment method that considers the uncertainty of renewable energy, and establishes real-time operation risk evaluation indicators including system reserve, frequency and power of transmission line. The practicality of proposed method is verified with the actual operating data of Jilin province. This paper provides theoretical and technical support for operation risk decision-making, operation risk management for the new power system with renewable energy as the main body.