Importance sampling method for efficient estimation of the probability of rare events in biochemical reaction systems

Zhouyi Xu, Xiaodong Cai
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Abstract

The weighted stochastic simulation algorithm (wSSA) recently developed by Kuwahara and Mura and the refined wSSA proposed by Gillespie et al. based on the importance sampling technique open the door for efficient estimation of the probability of rare events in biochemical reaction systems. However, both the wSSA and the refined wSSA do not provide a systematic method for selecting the values of importance sampling parameters but require some initial guessing for those values. In this paper, we develop a systematic method for selecting the values of importance sampling parameters for the wSSA. Numerical results demonstrate that our parameter selection method can substantially improve the performance of the wSSA in terms of simulation efficiency and accuracy.
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有效估计生化反应系统中罕见事件概率的重要抽样方法
Kuwahara和Mura最近开发的加权随机模拟算法(wSSA)和Gillespie等人基于重要性抽样技术提出的改进wSSA为有效估计生化反应系统中罕见事件的概率打开了大门。然而,wSSA和改进wSSA都没有提供一个系统的方法来选择重要抽样参数的值,而是需要对这些值进行一些初步的猜测。在本文中,我们开发了一种系统的方法来选择wSSA的重要抽样参数的值。数值结果表明,我们的参数选择方法在仿真效率和精度方面都能显著提高wSSA的性能。
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