Individual and Collective Rationality in Complex Economic Systems

A. Kirman
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Macroeconomics has been preoccupied by the analysis of equilibrium states and their properties. It is assumed that there are mechanisms which will always drive the economy to equilibrium, from which it is perturbed only by exogenous shocks. What is needed however, are models which treat the economy as a complex evolving system which may undergo sudden and radical endogenous changes. The interaction between the individuals and firms in the economy produces aggregate phenomena which are intrinsically different from the behavior of the individuals. Collective results may be more or less ârationalâ than individual behavior. Simulating agent-based models allows us to model the evolution of the economy and the emergence of crises which are absent from standard macroeconomic models.
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复杂经济系统中的个体与集体理性
宏观经济学一直专注于对均衡状态及其性质的分析。人们假设存在一些机制,这些机制将永远推动经济走向平衡,只有外部冲击才会干扰经济。然而,我们需要的是将经济视为一个复杂的进化系统的模型,这个系统可能会经历突然而激进的内生变化。经济中个人和企业之间的相互作用产生了本质上不同于个人行为的总体现象。集体的结果可能比个人的行为更理性。模拟基于主体的模型使我们能够模拟经济的演变和危机的出现,这是标准宏观经济模型所没有的。
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