Prediction and analysis of the household savings based on the multiplicative seasonality model

Abstract

Household savings represent the purchasing power of the remaining of the disposable income after getting ride of consumption. For predicting on household savings is extremely important. The existing prediction model of household savings usually use traditional methods--regression prediction method. However, the paper uses the method of multiplicative seasonality model of time series to analysis and predicts the rest of household saving, and derives that the ideal prediction model of ARIMA(2,1,1)(1,1,1,).