Population Ageing and Fiscal Sustainability in Finland: A Stochastic Analysis

J. Lassila, T. Valkonen
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引用次数: 15

Abstract

This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic projections to describe uncertain future demographic trends and asset yields. While current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue to finance public expenditure with an ageing population, if developments are as expected, the problem will not be very large. However, there is a small, but not negligible, probability that taxes will need to be raised dramatically, perhaps by over 5 percentage points. Such outcomes, if realised, could destabilise the entire welfare state. The study also analyses three policy options aimed at improving sustainability. Longevity adjustment of pension benefits and introduction of an NDC pension system would reduce the expected problem and narrow the sustainability gap distribution. Under the third option, pension funds would invest more in equities and expect to get higher returns. This policy also limits the sustainability problem, but only under precondition that policymakers in the future can live with substantially larger variation in the value of the funds without adjusting tax rules or benefits.
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芬兰人口老龄化与财政可持续性:一个随机分析
本研究分析了芬兰公共部门的财政可持续性,使用随机预测来描述不确定的未来人口趋势和资产收益率。虽然目前的税率不太可能产生足够的税收来为人口老龄化的公共支出提供资金,但如果事态发展如预期的那样,问题不会很大。然而,有一个很小但不可忽略的可能性,即税收需要大幅提高,也许超过5个百分点。这样的结果如果成为现实,可能会动摇整个福利国家。该研究还分析了旨在提高可持续性的三种政策选择。养老金待遇的长寿调整和NDC养老金制度的引入将减少预期问题,缩小可持续性差距分布。在第三种选择下,养老基金将更多地投资于股票,并期望获得更高的回报。这一政策也限制了可持续性问题,但前提是政策制定者未来可以在不调整税收规则或福利的情况下接受基金价值大幅增加的变化。
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