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Financial Decisions under the Shadow of Terrorism 恐怖主义阴影下的金融决策
Pub Date : 2013-04-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1317086
Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos
We investigate, using the 2002 US Health and Retirement Study, individuals’ insecurity and expectations about terrorism, and their effects on household financial decisions. We find that those without any military experience, the less educated, the more religious and females worry a lot about their safety. In addition, fear of terrorism discourages households from investing in stocks and owning a business, while it makes them more likely to buy term life insurance.
我们利用2002年美国健康与退休研究,调查了个人对恐怖主义的不安全感和预期,以及它们对家庭财务决策的影响。我们发现,那些没有任何军事经验的人、受教育程度较低的人、更虔诚的人以及女性都非常担心自己的安全。此外,对恐怖主义的恐惧使家庭不愿投资股票和拥有企业,而更有可能购买定期人寿保险。
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引用次数: 5
Why Do So Few Women Work in New York (And So Many in Minneapolis)? Labor Supply of Married Women across U.S. Cities 为什么在纽约工作的女性如此之少(而在明尼阿波利斯却如此之多)?美国各城市已婚妇女的劳动力供给
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1129982
D. Black, Natalia A. Kolesnikova, Lowell Taylor
This paper documents a little-noticed feature of US labor markets—very large variation in the labor supply of married women across cities. We focus on cross-city differences in commuting times as a potential explanation for this variation. We start with a model in which commuting times introduce non-convexities into the budget set. Empirical evidence is consistent with the model’s predictions: Labor force participation rates of married women are negatively correlated with the metropolitan area commuting time. Also, metropolitan areas with larger increases in average commuting time in 1980–2000 had slower growth in the labor force participation of married women.
本文记录了美国劳动力市场一个鲜为人知的特征——不同城市已婚女性的劳动力供给差异很大。我们将重点放在跨城市通勤时间的差异上,作为这种差异的潜在解释。我们从一个模型开始,在这个模型中,通勤时间在预算集中引入了非凸性。实证结果与模型预测一致:已婚女性的劳动参与率与都市圈通勤时间呈负相关。此外,1980-2000年期间平均通勤时间增加较多的大都市地区,已婚妇女参与劳动力的增长速度较慢。
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引用次数: 163
A Semiparametric Characterization of Income Uncertainty over the Lifecycle 生命周期内收入不确定性的半参数表征
Pub Date : 2010-06-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1247451
J. Feigenbaum, Geng Li
We propose a novel approach to estimate household income uncertainty at various future horizons and characterize how the estimated uncertainty evolves over the life cycle. We measure income uncertainty as the variance of linear forecast errors conditional on information available to households prior to observing the realized income. This approach is semiparametric because we impose essentially no restrictions on the statistical properties of the forecast errors. Relative to previous studies, we find lower and less persistent income uncertainties that call for a life cycle consumption profile with a less pronounced hump.
我们提出了一种新的方法来估计未来不同时期的家庭收入不确定性,并描述了估计的不确定性在生命周期中的演变。我们衡量收入不确定性为线性预测误差的方差,条件是在观察实际收入之前家庭可获得的信息。这种方法是半参数的,因为我们基本上没有对预测误差的统计性质施加限制。与之前的研究相比,我们发现收入不确定性较低且持续时间较短,这要求生命周期消费曲线具有不太明显的驼峰。
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引用次数: 5
The Evolution of Decision and Experienced Utilities 决策与经验效用的演变
Pub Date : 2010-02-15 DOI: 10.3982/TE800
A. Robson, L. Samuelson
Psychologists report that people make choices on the basis of "decision utilities" that routinely overestimate the "experienced utility" consequences of these choices. This paper argues that this dichotomy between decision and experienced utilities may be the solution to an evolutionary design problem. We examine a setting in which evolution designs agents with utility functions that must mediate intertemporal choices, and in which there is an incentive to condition current utilities on the agent's previous experience. Anticipating future utility adjustments can distort intertemporal incentives, a conflict that is attenuated by separating decision and experienced utilities.
心理学家报告说,人们在“决策效用”的基础上做出选择,通常会高估这些选择的“经验效用”后果。本文认为,决策和经验效用之间的二分法可能是进化设计问题的解决方案。我们研究了一种设置,在这种设置中,进化设计了具有效用函数的智能体,这些效用函数必须调解跨期选择,并且在这种设置中,存在一种激励,以智能体以前的经验为条件来限制当前的效用。预测未来的效用调整会扭曲跨期激励,这种冲突通过将决策和经验效用分开来减弱。
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引用次数: 45
Age Trajectories of Social Policy Preferences - Support for Intergenerational Transfers from a Demographic Perspective 社会政策偏好的年龄轨迹——从人口统计学角度支持代际转移
Pub Date : 2009-11-01 DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-034
Harald Wilkoszewski
The political discourse on demographic change has gained momentum in many developed countries. When it began, the discussion centred on the question of how to influence population ageing through political means (e.g., by raising fertility rates). But political decision makers now seem to be concerned about the consequences of demographic change on societal dynamics, especially intergenerational relations. This is particularly evident in Germany, where the latest pension increase provoked a discussion about a possible transformation of the political system into a “gerontocracy”, in which the elderly control public resources to their own benefit. In this paper, we investigate whether there is evidence for such a scenario by looking at two main questions. First, what is the effect of age on preferences toward social policies, which organise public transfers between generations (family and pension policies)? Second, to what extent does a possible age effect depend on further demographic factors, such as parenthood and marriage, which represent the framework of an individual’s life course? In order to answer these questions, we use recent survey data (GGS 2005 and PPAS 2003), which we analyse by applying standard linear models as well as Generalised Additive Models. The latter allow us to identify the trajectories of a possible age effect and its dependency on other demographic variables. In contrast to most existing studies, our analyses show clear age effects: older people are less prone to support a variety of transfers to families than younger respondents. At the same time, the elderly are more prone to support pension policy reforms that put an even greater burden on the younger generation. We can also show that the age effects found are not always linear and follow different trajectories across the life course. We therefore argue that classical economic concepts cannot fully explain age-based support for intergenerational transfers. Age effects have to be seen in light of further demographic variables beyond a solely economically defined life cycle.
在许多发达国家,关于人口变化的政治论述已获得势头。会议开始时,讨论的重点是如何通过政治手段(例如提高生育率)影响人口老龄化问题。但政治决策者现在似乎担心人口变化对社会动态的影响,尤其是代际关系。这一点在德国尤其明显,最近的养老金增长引发了一场关于政治体制可能转变为“老人政治”的讨论,在这种政治体制中,老年人控制公共资源,为自己的利益服务。在本文中,我们通过观察两个主要问题来调查是否有证据证明这种情况。首先,年龄对社会政策偏好的影响是什么?社会政策会组织代际间的公共转移(家庭和养老金政策)。其次,可能的年龄效应在多大程度上取决于进一步的人口因素,如父母和婚姻,这些因素代表了个人生命历程的框架?为了回答这些问题,我们使用了最近的调查数据(GGS 2005和PPAS 2003),我们通过应用标准线性模型和广义加性模型来分析这些数据。后者使我们能够确定可能的年龄影响及其对其他人口变量的依赖的轨迹。与大多数现有研究相反,我们的分析显示出明显的年龄效应:与年轻的受访者相比,老年人不太愿意支持各种向家庭转移的行为。与此同时,老年人更倾向于支持给年轻一代带来更大负担的养老金政策改革。我们还可以证明,年龄的影响并不总是线性的,在整个生命过程中遵循不同的轨迹。因此,我们认为古典经济学概念不能完全解释基于年龄的代际转移支持。年龄的影响必须考虑到更多的人口变量,而不仅仅是经济定义的生命周期。
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引用次数: 14
Fatter Attraction: Marital Status and the Relationship between BMI and Labor Supply 肥胖吸引力:婚姻状况及BMI与劳动力供给的关系
Pub Date : 2009-08-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1445545
Sonia Oreffice, C. Quintana‐Domeque
We empirically analyze the labor supply choices of married men and women according to their body size (BMI), using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on anthropometric characteristics of both spouses, and unmarried men and women as comparison group. Heavier husbands are found to work significantly more hours and earn more labor income, controlling for both spouses’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Conversely, no such effect is found for either unmarried individuals or for married women. We suggest a marriage market mechanism through which male BMI and earnings are positively related. Heavier married men compensate for their negative physical trait by providing their wives with more disposable income, working more hours and earning more. Heavier women may not able to compensate their spouse through labor supply, as female physical traits are more relevant in the marriage market than the corresponding male traits.
本文以未婚男女为对照组,利用《收入动态研究》(Panel Study of Income Dynamics)的数据,对已婚男女根据体重指数(BMI)的劳动力供给选择进行实证分析。研究发现,在控制了夫妻双方的人口统计学和社会经济特征后,体重较重的丈夫工作时间明显更长,劳动收入也更多。相反,无论是未婚个体还是已婚女性,都没有发现这种影响。我们提出了一个婚姻市场机制,通过该机制,男性BMI和收入呈正相关。肥胖的已婚男人通过给妻子提供更多的可支配收入、工作更长时间、赚更多的钱来弥补他们身体上的缺点。体重较重的女性可能无法通过劳动力供给来补偿配偶,因为女性的身体特征在婚姻市场上比相应的男性特征更重要。
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引用次数: 2
Beer in Good Times and Bad: A U.S. State-Level Analysis Of Economic Conditions and Alcohol Consumption 啤酒的好与坏:美国经济状况和酒精消费的州级分析
Pub Date : 2009-08-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1445051
Donald G. Freeman
Data on U.S. state-level beer shipments from 1970 to 2007 provided by The Beer Institute are used to estimate pooled time-series models of annual consumption regressed on economic and demographic variables, using the common correlated effects (CCE) estimators to control for unobserved common effects and to allow for heterogeneous responses across units. Beer is found to be a procyclical good, varying negatively with the state unemployment rate. Previous findings for the negative effect of excise taxes on consumption are supported, though the estimated elasticities are smaller than those reported in earlier research. Demographics have a significant and material effect on consumption, with larger shares of young adults in the population implying greater consumption of beer per capita. (JEL Classification: D12, C23)
美国啤酒研究所提供的1970年至2007年美国各州啤酒出货量数据用于估计年度消费回归经济和人口变量的汇总时间序列模型,使用共同相关效应(CCE)估计器来控制未观察到的共同效应,并允许跨单位的异质响应。研究发现,啤酒是一种顺周期商品,与州失业率呈负相关。先前关于消费税对消费的负面影响的研究结果得到了支持,尽管估计的弹性比早期研究报告的要小。人口统计数据对消费有重大的物质影响,人口中年轻人的比例越大,人均啤酒消费量就越大。(JEL分类:D12, C23)
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引用次数: 12
Key Factors Influencing Health Disparities among African Americans 影响非裔美国人健康差异的关键因素
Pub Date : 2009-07-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1437507
Elgie McFayden
Despite significant progress in the diagnosis and treatment of chronic diseases, African Americans continue to exhibit disproportionately higher rates of hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and stroke when compared to other racial and ethnic groups in the United States (Adler and Newman 2002). A significant body of literature suggests that racism and or discrimination may be a contributing factor in the misdiagnosis, late diagnosis, as well as, the scope and veracity of treatment once African Americans are diagnosed with a chronic illness or disease (Peterson, Wright, Daley and Thibault, 1994). Additionally, African Americans have a higher mortality rate than white Americans when diagnosed with chronic illnesses and diseases which are curable or at least treatable (Hayward, Crimmins, Miles and Yu, 2000). This paper examines key factors which may impact disparities in mortality rates observed between African Americans and other racial and ethnic groups in the United States.
尽管在慢性病的诊断和治疗方面取得了重大进展,但与美国其他种族和族裔群体相比,非裔美国人患高血压、糖尿病、心血管疾病和中风的比例仍然不成比例地高(Adler和Newman, 2002年)。大量文献表明,一旦非裔美国人被诊断患有慢性疾病或疾病,种族主义和/或歧视可能是误诊、延迟诊断以及治疗范围和准确性的一个促成因素(Peterson, Wright, Daley和Thibault, 1994)。此外,非裔美国人在被诊断患有慢性疾病和可治愈或至少可治疗的疾病时,死亡率高于美国白人(Hayward, Crimmins, Miles and Yu, 2000)。本文探讨了可能影响非裔美国人与美国其他种族和族裔群体之间死亡率差异的关键因素。
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引用次数: 9
The Family Gap Reconsidered: What Wombmates Reveal 重新考虑家庭差距:子宫伴侣揭示了什么
Pub Date : 2009-07-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1431366
Marianne Simonsen, Lars Skipper
We shed new light on the effects of having children on hourly wages by exploiting access to data on the entire population of employed twins in Denmark. In addition we use administrative data on absenteeism; the amount of hours off due to holidays and sickness. Our results suggest that childbearing reduces female hourly wages but the principal explanation is in fact mothers’ higher levels of absence. We find a positive wage premium for fathers both when applying OLS on the entire population of Danes and when imposing twin fixed effects in the twin sample.
我们利用对丹麦所有就业双胞胎人口的数据,揭示了有孩子对时薪的影响。此外,我们还使用有关缺勤的行政数据;由于假期和生病而休息的时间。我们的研究结果表明,生育降低了女性的时薪,但主要原因实际上是母亲的缺勤率更高。我们发现,当对整个丹麦人口应用OLS以及在双胞胎样本中施加双胞胎固定效应时,父亲的工资溢价都是正的。
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引用次数: 6
Duration of Maternity Leave in Germany: A Case Study of Nonparametric Hazard Models and Penalized Splines 德国产假持续时间:非参数风险模型和惩罚样条的案例研究
Pub Date : 2009-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1441933
Torben Kuhlenkasper, G. Kauermann
The paper investigates maternity leave behavior in West Germany for females being employed between 1995 and 2006 using data from the German Socio Economic Panel. The observational study focuses on the investigation of individual and family-related covariate effects on the duration of maternity leave following first or second childbirth, respectively. Dynamic duration time models are used in which covariate effects are allowed to vary smoothly with duration of being in maternity leave. The intention of the paper is to demonstrate with state of the art models how effects of covariables change over time and to analyse substantial differences between maternity leaves following first and second childbirth. Particularly the personal income of mothers and the educational attainment influence the decision when to return into employment. The leave period following second birth is influenced by the mothers' attachment to the labour market between their two maternity leave periods. As fitting routine penalized spline smoothing effects is employed using available software in R (http://www.r-project.org).
本文利用德国社会经济委员会的数据,调查了1995年至2006年间西德就业女性休产假的行为。观察性研究的重点是调查个人和家庭相关的协变量效应,分别对第一胎或第二胎后产假的持续时间。使用动态持续时间模型,其中允许协变量效应随产假持续时间平滑变化。本文的目的是用最先进的模型来证明协变量的影响是如何随着时间的推移而变化的,并分析第一次和第二次分娩后产假之间的实质性差异。特别是母亲的个人收入和受教育程度会影响她们何时重返就业岗位的决定。二胎后的假期受母亲在两个产假期间对劳动力市场的依恋程度的影响。作为拟合例程,惩罚样条平滑效果使用可用的软件在R (http://www.r-project.org)。
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引用次数: 24
期刊
Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family
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