We investigate, using the 2002 US Health and Retirement Study, individuals’ insecurity and expectations about terrorism, and their effects on household financial decisions. We find that those without any military experience, the less educated, the more religious and females worry a lot about their safety. In addition, fear of terrorism discourages households from investing in stocks and owning a business, while it makes them more likely to buy term life insurance.
{"title":"Financial Decisions under the Shadow of Terrorism","authors":"Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1317086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1317086","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate, using the 2002 US Health and Retirement Study, individuals’ insecurity and expectations about terrorism, and their effects on household financial decisions. We find that those without any military experience, the less educated, the more religious and females worry a lot about their safety. In addition, fear of terrorism discourages households from investing in stocks and owning a business, while it makes them more likely to buy term life insurance.","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130681569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper documents a little-noticed feature of US labor markets—very large variation in the labor supply of married women across cities. We focus on cross-city differences in commuting times as a potential explanation for this variation. We start with a model in which commuting times introduce non-convexities into the budget set. Empirical evidence is consistent with the model’s predictions: Labor force participation rates of married women are negatively correlated with the metropolitan area commuting time. Also, metropolitan areas with larger increases in average commuting time in 1980–2000 had slower growth in the labor force participation of married women.
{"title":"Why Do So Few Women Work in New York (And So Many in Minneapolis)? Labor Supply of Married Women across U.S. Cities","authors":"D. Black, Natalia A. Kolesnikova, Lowell Taylor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1129982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1129982","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents a little-noticed feature of US labor markets—very large variation in the labor supply of married women across cities. We focus on cross-city differences in commuting times as a potential explanation for this variation. We start with a model in which commuting times introduce non-convexities into the budget set. Empirical evidence is consistent with the model’s predictions: Labor force participation rates of married women are negatively correlated with the metropolitan area commuting time. Also, metropolitan areas with larger increases in average commuting time in 1980–2000 had slower growth in the labor force participation of married women.","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126263991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose a novel approach to estimate household income uncertainty at various future horizons and characterize how the estimated uncertainty evolves over the life cycle. We measure income uncertainty as the variance of linear forecast errors conditional on information available to households prior to observing the realized income. This approach is semiparametric because we impose essentially no restrictions on the statistical properties of the forecast errors. Relative to previous studies, we find lower and less persistent income uncertainties that call for a life cycle consumption profile with a less pronounced hump.
{"title":"A Semiparametric Characterization of Income Uncertainty over the Lifecycle","authors":"J. Feigenbaum, Geng Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1247451","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1247451","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a novel approach to estimate household income uncertainty at various future horizons and characterize how the estimated uncertainty evolves over the life cycle. We measure income uncertainty as the variance of linear forecast errors conditional on information available to households prior to observing the realized income. This approach is semiparametric because we impose essentially no restrictions on the statistical properties of the forecast errors. Relative to previous studies, we find lower and less persistent income uncertainties that call for a life cycle consumption profile with a less pronounced hump.","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128861267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Psychologists report that people make choices on the basis of "decision utilities" that routinely overestimate the "experienced utility" consequences of these choices. This paper argues that this dichotomy between decision and experienced utilities may be the solution to an evolutionary design problem. We examine a setting in which evolution designs agents with utility functions that must mediate intertemporal choices, and in which there is an incentive to condition current utilities on the agent's previous experience. Anticipating future utility adjustments can distort intertemporal incentives, a conflict that is attenuated by separating decision and experienced utilities.
{"title":"The Evolution of Decision and Experienced Utilities","authors":"A. Robson, L. Samuelson","doi":"10.3982/TE800","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/TE800","url":null,"abstract":"Psychologists report that people make choices on the basis of \"decision utilities\" that routinely overestimate the \"experienced utility\" consequences of these choices. This paper argues that this dichotomy between decision and experienced utilities may be the solution to an evolutionary design problem. We examine a setting in which evolution designs agents with utility functions that must mediate intertemporal choices, and in which there is an incentive to condition current utilities on the agent's previous experience. Anticipating future utility adjustments can distort intertemporal incentives, a conflict that is attenuated by separating decision and experienced utilities.","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"387 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124937110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-11-01DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-034
Harald Wilkoszewski
The political discourse on demographic change has gained momentum in many developed countries. When it began, the discussion centred on the question of how to influence population ageing through political means (e.g., by raising fertility rates). But political decision makers now seem to be concerned about the consequences of demographic change on societal dynamics, especially intergenerational relations. This is particularly evident in Germany, where the latest pension increase provoked a discussion about a possible transformation of the political system into a “gerontocracy”, in which the elderly control public resources to their own benefit. In this paper, we investigate whether there is evidence for such a scenario by looking at two main questions. First, what is the effect of age on preferences toward social policies, which organise public transfers between generations (family and pension policies)? Second, to what extent does a possible age effect depend on further demographic factors, such as parenthood and marriage, which represent the framework of an individual’s life course? In order to answer these questions, we use recent survey data (GGS 2005 and PPAS 2003), which we analyse by applying standard linear models as well as Generalised Additive Models. The latter allow us to identify the trajectories of a possible age effect and its dependency on other demographic variables. In contrast to most existing studies, our analyses show clear age effects: older people are less prone to support a variety of transfers to families than younger respondents. At the same time, the elderly are more prone to support pension policy reforms that put an even greater burden on the younger generation. We can also show that the age effects found are not always linear and follow different trajectories across the life course. We therefore argue that classical economic concepts cannot fully explain age-based support for intergenerational transfers. Age effects have to be seen in light of further demographic variables beyond a solely economically defined life cycle.
{"title":"Age Trajectories of Social Policy Preferences - Support for Intergenerational Transfers from a Demographic Perspective","authors":"Harald Wilkoszewski","doi":"10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-034","url":null,"abstract":"The political discourse on demographic change has gained momentum in many developed countries. When it began, the discussion centred on the question of how to influence population ageing through political means (e.g., by raising fertility rates). But political decision makers now seem to be concerned about the consequences of demographic change on societal dynamics, especially intergenerational relations. This is particularly evident in Germany, where the latest pension increase provoked a discussion about a possible transformation of the political system into a “gerontocracy”, in which the elderly control public resources to their own benefit. In this paper, we investigate whether there is evidence for such a scenario by looking at two main questions. First, what is the effect of age on preferences toward social policies, which organise public transfers between generations (family and pension policies)? Second, to what extent does a possible age effect depend on further demographic factors, such as parenthood and marriage, which represent the framework of an individual’s life course? In order to answer these questions, we use recent survey data (GGS 2005 and PPAS 2003), which we analyse by applying standard linear models as well as Generalised Additive Models. The latter allow us to identify the trajectories of a possible age effect and its dependency on other demographic variables. In contrast to most existing studies, our analyses show clear age effects: older people are less prone to support a variety of transfers to families than younger respondents. At the same time, the elderly are more prone to support pension policy reforms that put an even greater burden on the younger generation. We can also show that the age effects found are not always linear and follow different trajectories across the life course. We therefore argue that classical economic concepts cannot fully explain age-based support for intergenerational transfers. Age effects have to be seen in light of further demographic variables beyond a solely economically defined life cycle.","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127265322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We empirically analyze the labor supply choices of married men and women according to their body size (BMI), using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on anthropometric characteristics of both spouses, and unmarried men and women as comparison group. Heavier husbands are found to work significantly more hours and earn more labor income, controlling for both spouses’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Conversely, no such effect is found for either unmarried individuals or for married women. We suggest a marriage market mechanism through which male BMI and earnings are positively related. Heavier married men compensate for their negative physical trait by providing their wives with more disposable income, working more hours and earning more. Heavier women may not able to compensate their spouse through labor supply, as female physical traits are more relevant in the marriage market than the corresponding male traits.
本文以未婚男女为对照组，利用《收入动态研究》(Panel Study of Income Dynamics)的数据，对已婚男女根据体重指数(BMI)的劳动力供给选择进行实证分析。研究发现，在控制了夫妻双方的人口统计学和社会经济特征后，体重较重的丈夫工作时间明显更长，劳动收入也更多。相反，无论是未婚个体还是已婚女性，都没有发现这种影响。我们提出了一个婚姻市场机制，通过该机制，男性BMI和收入呈正相关。肥胖的已婚男人通过给妻子提供更多的可支配收入、工作更长时间、赚更多的钱来弥补他们身体上的缺点。体重较重的女性可能无法通过劳动力供给来补偿配偶，因为女性的身体特征在婚姻市场上比相应的男性特征更重要。
{"title":"Fatter Attraction: Marital Status and the Relationship between BMI and Labor Supply","authors":"Sonia Oreffice, C. Quintana‐Domeque","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1445545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1445545","url":null,"abstract":"We empirically analyze the labor supply choices of married men and women according to their body size (BMI), using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on anthropometric characteristics of both spouses, and unmarried men and women as comparison group. Heavier husbands are found to work significantly more hours and earn more labor income, controlling for both spouses’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Conversely, no such effect is found for either unmarried individuals or for married women. We suggest a marriage market mechanism through which male BMI and earnings are positively related. Heavier married men compensate for their negative physical trait by providing their wives with more disposable income, working more hours and earning more. Heavier women may not able to compensate their spouse through labor supply, as female physical traits are more relevant in the marriage market than the corresponding male traits.","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"8 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126119358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Data on U.S. state-level beer shipments from 1970 to 2007 provided by The Beer Institute are used to estimate pooled time-series models of annual consumption regressed on economic and demographic variables, using the common correlated effects (CCE) estimators to control for unobserved common effects and to allow for heterogeneous responses across units. Beer is found to be a procyclical good, varying negatively with the state unemployment rate. Previous findings for the negative effect of excise taxes on consumption are supported, though the estimated elasticities are smaller than those reported in earlier research. Demographics have a significant and material effect on consumption, with larger shares of young adults in the population implying greater consumption of beer per capita. (JEL Classification: D12, C23)
{"title":"Beer in Good Times and Bad: A U.S. State-Level Analysis Of Economic Conditions and Alcohol Consumption","authors":"Donald G. Freeman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1445051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1445051","url":null,"abstract":"Data on U.S. state-level beer shipments from 1970 to 2007 provided by The Beer Institute are used to estimate pooled time-series models of annual consumption regressed on economic and demographic variables, using the common correlated effects (CCE) estimators to control for unobserved common effects and to allow for heterogeneous responses across units. Beer is found to be a procyclical good, varying negatively with the state unemployment rate. Previous findings for the negative effect of excise taxes on consumption are supported, though the estimated elasticities are smaller than those reported in earlier research. Demographics have a significant and material effect on consumption, with larger shares of young adults in the population implying greater consumption of beer per capita. (JEL Classification: D12, C23)","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122861950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite significant progress in the diagnosis and treatment of chronic diseases, African Americans continue to exhibit disproportionately higher rates of hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and stroke when compared to other racial and ethnic groups in the United States (Adler and Newman 2002). A significant body of literature suggests that racism and or discrimination may be a contributing factor in the misdiagnosis, late diagnosis, as well as, the scope and veracity of treatment once African Americans are diagnosed with a chronic illness or disease (Peterson, Wright, Daley and Thibault, 1994). Additionally, African Americans have a higher mortality rate than white Americans when diagnosed with chronic illnesses and diseases which are curable or at least treatable (Hayward, Crimmins, Miles and Yu, 2000). This paper examines key factors which may impact disparities in mortality rates observed between African Americans and other racial and ethnic groups in the United States.
尽管在慢性病的诊断和治疗方面取得了重大进展，但与美国其他种族和族裔群体相比，非裔美国人患高血压、糖尿病、心血管疾病和中风的比例仍然不成比例地高(Adler和Newman, 2002年)。大量文献表明，一旦非裔美国人被诊断患有慢性疾病或疾病，种族主义和/或歧视可能是误诊、延迟诊断以及治疗范围和准确性的一个促成因素(Peterson, Wright, Daley和Thibault, 1994)。此外，非裔美国人在被诊断患有慢性疾病和可治愈或至少可治疗的疾病时，死亡率高于美国白人(Hayward, Crimmins, Miles and Yu, 2000)。本文探讨了可能影响非裔美国人与美国其他种族和族裔群体之间死亡率差异的关键因素。
{"title":"Key Factors Influencing Health Disparities among African Americans","authors":"Elgie McFayden","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1437507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1437507","url":null,"abstract":"Despite significant progress in the diagnosis and treatment of chronic diseases, African Americans continue to exhibit disproportionately higher rates of hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and stroke when compared to other racial and ethnic groups in the United States (Adler and Newman 2002). A significant body of literature suggests that racism and or discrimination may be a contributing factor in the misdiagnosis, late diagnosis, as well as, the scope and veracity of treatment once African Americans are diagnosed with a chronic illness or disease (Peterson, Wright, Daley and Thibault, 1994). Additionally, African Americans have a higher mortality rate than white Americans when diagnosed with chronic illnesses and diseases which are curable or at least treatable (Hayward, Crimmins, Miles and Yu, 2000). This paper examines key factors which may impact disparities in mortality rates observed between African Americans and other racial and ethnic groups in the United States.","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128399641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We shed new light on the effects of having children on hourly wages by exploiting access to data on the entire population of employed twins in Denmark. In addition we use administrative data on absenteeism; the amount of hours off due to holidays and sickness. Our results suggest that childbearing reduces female hourly wages but the principal explanation is in fact mothers’ higher levels of absence. We find a positive wage premium for fathers both when applying OLS on the entire population of Danes and when imposing twin fixed effects in the twin sample.
{"title":"The Family Gap Reconsidered: What Wombmates Reveal","authors":"Marianne Simonsen, Lars Skipper","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1431366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1431366","url":null,"abstract":"We shed new light on the effects of having children on hourly wages by exploiting access to data on the entire population of employed twins in Denmark. In addition we use administrative data on absenteeism; the amount of hours off due to holidays and sickness. Our results suggest that childbearing reduces female hourly wages but the principal explanation is in fact mothers’ higher levels of absence. We find a positive wage premium for fathers both when applying OLS on the entire population of Danes and when imposing twin fixed effects in the twin sample.","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"132 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116284616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper investigates maternity leave behavior in West Germany for females being employed between 1995 and 2006 using data from the German Socio Economic Panel. The observational study focuses on the investigation of individual and family-related covariate effects on the duration of maternity leave following first or second childbirth, respectively. Dynamic duration time models are used in which covariate effects are allowed to vary smoothly with duration of being in maternity leave. The intention of the paper is to demonstrate with state of the art models how effects of covariables change over time and to analyse substantial differences between maternity leaves following first and second childbirth. Particularly the personal income of mothers and the educational attainment influence the decision when to return into employment. The leave period following second birth is influenced by the mothers' attachment to the labour market between their two maternity leave periods. As fitting routine penalized spline smoothing effects is employed using available software in R (http://www.r-project.org).
{"title":"Duration of Maternity Leave in Germany: A Case Study of Nonparametric Hazard Models and Penalized Splines","authors":"Torben Kuhlenkasper, G. Kauermann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1441933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1441933","url":null,"abstract":"The paper investigates maternity leave behavior in West Germany for females being employed between 1995 and 2006 using data from the German Socio Economic Panel. The observational study focuses on the investigation of individual and family-related covariate effects on the duration of maternity leave following first or second childbirth, respectively. Dynamic duration time models are used in which covariate effects are allowed to vary smoothly with duration of being in maternity leave. The intention of the paper is to demonstrate with state of the art models how effects of covariables change over time and to analyse substantial differences between maternity leaves following first and second childbirth. Particularly the personal income of mothers and the educational attainment influence the decision when to return into employment. The leave period following second birth is influenced by the mothers' attachment to the labour market between their two maternity leave periods. As fitting routine penalized spline smoothing effects is employed using available software in R (http://www.r-project.org).","PeriodicalId":106212,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family","volume":"13 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113968363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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