An Analysis of Consumption Function: A Case Study of Upper Middle Income Economies

Sarfaraz Ahmed Shaikh Et al.,
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Abstract

This paper draws on evidence of consumption function from four-country group case-studies of upper middle-income economies (together termed as developing economies). The ARDL model is applied to the time series data from 1985 to 2017 to understand the major components of the aggregate consumption function. The result reveals that labor income and wealth impact in all economies are similar and have a significant positive impact on real private aggregate consumption. Similarly, the real interest rate and unemployment have an analogous effect on real private aggregate consumption. The real interest rate has a negative effect on aggregate real private consumption supporting income effect. In the short run real GDP and wealth have a positive impact on aggregate real private consumption while real interest rate and unemployment rate have a negative effect on aggregate real private consumption for selected economies. Moreover, overall PIH is valid for long-run, while AIH is valid for short-run in the selected countries.
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消费函数分析:以中高收入经济体为例
本文从中高收入经济体(统称为发展中经济体)的四个国家组案例研究中吸取了消费函数的证据。将ARDL模型应用于1985 - 2017年的时间序列数据,了解总消费函数的主要成分。结果表明,劳动收入和财富对所有经济体的影响是相似的,并且对实际私人总消费有显著的正向影响。同样,实际利率和失业率对实际私人总消费也有类似的影响。实际利率对总实际私人消费具有负向的支撑收入效应。在短期内,实际GDP和财富对实际私人消费总量有积极影响,而实际利率和失业率对选定经济体的实际私人消费总量有消极影响。此外,在选定的国家,总体PIH是长期有效的,而AIH是短期有效的。
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