Scenario Development in Planning Military Actions to Prevent a Crisis Situation

Abstract

The Russian-Ukrainian military conflict is the most unexpected event having a major societal impact, not only on the conflicting parties, but also on the entire international community. The irreparable damage to critical infrastructures, the loss of human life and the constantly increasing considerable material damage are just three indicators that signal possible future crisis situations. The question that is justifiably raised is “Could this military conflict have been prevented?” Implicitly, another series of questions arises, such as “Can future crisis situations generated by this military conflict be prevented?” When expressing the answers to such questions, the military and societal security specialists turn to specific tools such as threat predictions and scenarios. In this context, we can talk about planning military actions in a much more realistic way, observing the battles taking place in the Ukrainian space, which is a new reality in Eastern Europe. The lessons learned following recent military conflicts refer to the complexity of the combat actions generated by the digitalization of the confrontation space and the interaction of the societal domains in a difficult-to-decipher manner. The experimental vignette methodology – EVM – applied in the development of the threat scenarios by using podcasts, supports the planning of the military actions as a solution to prevent crisis situations. The optimization of the process of teaching and training the military specialist through experimental vignettes opens new horizons on planning the military actions as interactions of the military component with the other components of the societal domains that ensure the transition from a macro- to a micromilitary confrontational environment.