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Seven-Step Algorithm to Identify Hybrid Warfare – The Black Sea Snake Island Case Study – 识别混合战争的七步算法——黑海蛇岛案例研究
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.1
Ionuț-Cosmin Buță
"The hybrid approach, as a new way of promoting diplomatic, informational, military and economic interests, represents the most common threat used by state or non-state actors all over the world. The purpose of this article is to create a new analytical tool by studying the hybrid challenges in the Black Sea region related to the Snake Island situation. The two research questions which create the premises for building our analysis are: How can hybrid threats be identified and visualized? and How can the aggressor’s progress be evaluated related to hybrid challenges? In this respect, our analysis is based on Patrick J. Cullen and Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud Analytical Framework Model for visualizing hybrid warfare applied to the particular Snake Island situation in order to identify critical functions and vulnerabilities, synchronization of means and actions and desired effects of the hybrid warfare actor. Moreover, we have applied the Process Tracing method and the Measure of Performance (MOP) tool to identify means in order to establish which of them can create the most disastrous consequences to Romanian energy security and to evaluate the aggressor’s progress in obtaining the desired effect(s). The paper results in a seven-step algorithm to identify hybrid warfare by combining an Analytical Framework Model, the Process Tracing research methodology and the Measure of Performance military evaluation tool with the main purpose of creating a new tool useful for future analysts and researchers."
“作为一种促进外交、信息、军事和经济利益的新方式,这种混合方式代表了世界各地国家或非国家行为体最常见的威胁。本文的目的是通过研究黑海地区与蛇岛局势相关的混合挑战,创造一种新的分析工具。为构建我们的分析提供前提的两个研究问题是:如何识别和可视化混合威胁?如何评估与混合挑战相关的侵略者的进步?在这方面,我们的分析基于Patrick J. Cullen和Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud分析框架模型,该模型用于可视化混合战争,适用于特定的蛇岛情况,以确定混合战争参与者的关键功能和脆弱性,手段和行动的同步以及期望的效果。此外,我们还应用了过程追踪方法和绩效衡量(MOP)工具来确定手段,以便确定哪些手段可以对罗马尼亚能源安全造成最严重的灾难性后果,并评估侵略者在获得预期效果方面的进展。本文通过结合分析框架模型、过程跟踪研究方法和性能度量军事评估工具,提出了一种识别混合战争的七步算法,主要目的是为未来的分析人员和研究人员创造一种有用的新工具。”
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引用次数: 2
Causes of the Failure of Russian Aviation in Achieving Air Supremacy in the Ukraine Conflict and Subsequent Influences on Its Evolution 俄罗斯航空在乌克兰冲突中未能取得制空权的原因及其对其演变的影响
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.2
Ioana Mischie
The large-scale conflicts from recent decades in Yugoslavia (1999), Iraq (1991 and 2003), Afghanistan (2001-2014) and Libya (2011) have shown the importance of achieving and maintaining air supremacy. The states of the world are trying to modernize their aircraft or build new ones in order to meet this goal, simultaneously with doctrinal changes in the field and changes in the techniques, tactics and procedures by which military pilots act. The states that remain anchored in the past and do not take into account these developments, risk not being able to use the air force effectively, with major repercussions on the results of military operations, a fact also seen in the war in Ukraine in 2022.
近几十年来,南斯拉夫(1999年)、伊拉克(1991年和2003年)、阿富汗(2001年至2014年)和利比亚(2011年)的大规模冲突表明了实现和维持制空权的重要性。为了实现这一目标,世界各国正在努力使其飞机现代化或建造新的飞机,同时在该领域的理论变化以及军事飞行员行动的技术、战术和程序方面也在发生变化。那些停留在过去、不考虑这些发展的国家,可能无法有效地使用空军,对军事行动的结果产生重大影响,这一事实在2022年的乌克兰战争中也有所体现。
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引用次数: 0
Scenario Development in Planning Military Actions to Prevent a Crisis Situation 规划军事行动以防止危机局势的情景发展
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.6
D. Roman
The Russian-Ukrainian military conflict is the most unexpected event having a major societal impact, not only on the conflicting parties, but also on the entire international community. The irreparable damage to critical infrastructures, the loss of human life and the constantly increasing considerable material damage are just three indicators that signal possible future crisis situations. The question that is justifiably raised is “Could this military conflict have been prevented?” Implicitly, another series of questions arises, such as “Can future crisis situations generated by this military conflict be prevented?” When expressing the answers to such questions, the military and societal security specialists turn to specific tools such as threat predictions and scenarios. In this context, we can talk about planning military actions in a much more realistic way, observing the battles taking place in the Ukrainian space, which is a new reality in Eastern Europe. The lessons learned following recent military conflicts refer to the complexity of the combat actions generated by the digitalization of the confrontation space and the interaction of the societal domains in a difficult-to-decipher manner. The experimental vignette methodology – EVM – applied in the development of the threat scenarios by using podcasts, supports the planning of the military actions as a solution to prevent crisis situations. The optimization of the process of teaching and training the military specialist through experimental vignettes opens new horizons on planning the military actions as interactions of the military component with the other components of the societal domains that ensure the transition from a macro- to a micromilitary confrontational environment.
俄乌军事冲突是最意想不到的事件,不仅对冲突各方,而且对整个国际社会都产生了重大的社会影响。对关键基础设施的不可挽回的破坏、生命的损失和不断增加的巨大物质损失只是表明未来可能出现危机局势的三个指标。有理由提出的问题是“这场军事冲突本可以避免吗?”暗含着另一系列问题,例如“能否防止这次军事冲突所造成的未来危机局势?”在回答这些问题时,军事和社会安全专家会求助于威胁预测和场景等特定工具。在这种情况下,我们可以谈论以更现实的方式规划军事行动,观察乌克兰空间发生的战斗,这是东欧的新现实。从最近的军事冲突中吸取的教训是,对抗空间的数字化和社会领域的相互作用以难以破译的方式产生的战斗行动的复杂性。实验小插曲方法——EVM——通过播客应用于威胁情景的发展,支持军事行动的规划,作为防止危机局势的解决方案。通过实验小插曲优化教学和训练军事专家的过程,为规划军事行动开辟了新的视野,因为军事部分与社会领域的其他部分相互作用,确保从宏观到微观军事对抗环境的过渡。
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引用次数: 1
Conceptual, Organisational and Relational Approaches to Multi-Domain Operations 多领域操作的概念、组织和关系方法
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.8
Gheorghe Minculete
Military changes and transformations over the past decade have highlighted the rise of competitive manifestations of state actors with complex global claims to counter the normal economic and military conduct of the world’s greatest power. To this end, US military specialists have developed the concept of “Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)” to implement all the requirements of countering the complex competitive actions of US adversaries globally. This study provides a theoretical approach with applied impact, specific to the military operational sphere, containing information and reference data, revealed in a logical structural flow, centred on conceptual, organisational and relational elements specific to Multi-Domain Operations designed and implemented by the armed forces of the United States of America. The objective of the study is to highlight, from a theoretical point of view, with practical implications and a focus on modernity, the effectiveness and operational efficiency of the military organizations formed to act to implement the MDO concept. This objective has led to the scientific analysis and interpretation of a relevant approach aimed at highlighting the role and importance of MDO, as well as the organisational structures suitable for the implementation of the concept for the purpose of decisional and actional strengthening of joint (assembled) forces operational in areas/theatres of operations on national territory or in the area of national and/or NATO interest. In addition, this research will increase the number of specialised sources that can be used for future research in this field of interest.
过去十年的军事变化和转型突显了国家行为体竞争性表现的崛起,这些行为体具有复杂的全球诉求,以对抗世界上最强大国家的正常经济和军事行为。为此,美国军事专家提出了“多域作战(MDO)”的概念,以实现应对美国全球对手复杂竞争行动的所有要求。这项研究提供了一种具有应用影响的理论方法,具体到军事行动领域,其中载有信息和参考数据,以逻辑结构流为中心,以美利坚合众国武装部队设计和实施的多领域行动所特有的概念、组织和关系要素为中心。本研究的目的是从理论的角度,以实际意义和现代性为重点,强调为实施MDO概念而形成的军事组织的有效性和作战效率。这一目标导致了对相关方法的科学分析和解释,旨在突出MDO的作用和重要性,以及适合实施这一概念的组织结构,目的是在国家领土或国家和/或北约利益的地区/战区加强联合(集结)部队的决策和行动。此外,这项研究将增加可用于该领域未来研究的专业资源的数量。
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引用次数: 0
Doctrinal Interoperability in the North Atlantic Alliance in Relation to Russian and Chinese Approach to Information Operations 北大西洋联盟中与俄中信息作战方法相关的理论互操作性
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.4
Cosmina-Andreea Neculcea, Florian Răpan
Interoperability is described as the ability of member states to act together coherently and effectively to achieve tactical, operational and strategic objectives. In particular, interoperability allows forces, units and/or systems to operate together and use shared concepts. At the operational and tactical level, there are numerous challenges regarding interoperability, and one of these challenges consists of doctrinal differences. The purpose of this article is to identify these differences, through the brief analysis of the doctrine projections of NATO, USA and Romania. There are significant differences both in understanding the concept of information operations from a conceptual and practical point of view and in terms of these subsumed operations. Also, in order to identify one’s vulnerabilities, we think that the analysis of strategies and tactics based only on a Western empirical approach is insufficient, and we aim at comparing the effectiveness of information operations from the Russian and Chinese perspectives, as well.
互操作性被描述为成员国一致有效地共同行动以实现战术、作战和战略目标的能力。特别是,互操作性允许部队、单位和/或系统一起操作并使用共享的概念。在操作和战术层面上,存在许多关于互操作性的挑战,其中一个挑战包括理论差异。本文的目的是通过对北约、美国和罗马尼亚的理论预测的简要分析,找出这些差异。从概念和实践的角度理解信息操作的概念,以及从这些包含操作的角度理解信息操作的概念,两者都存在显著差异。此外,为了识别一个人的弱点,我们认为仅基于西方经验方法的战略和战术分析是不够的,我们的目标是从俄罗斯和中国的角度比较信息操作的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Hybrid Warfare in Wartime – Concept and Action Operationalization Attempt – 战时混合作战——概念与行动操作化尝试
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.3
A. Lesenciuc
"Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has made the concept of hybrid warfare almost forgotten. The literature has focused on the confrontation itself, but, as a rule, hybrid threats are activated when public attention is drawn to other issues and when the public is not prepared to meet the challenge. After the invasion of Ukraine, the term hybrid warfare has dissipated into the mass of frequently used operational terms. From the range of five dimensions of this term, which entails five types of associated interpretations (Solmaz, 2022), in the war in Ukraine, the emphasis seems to be on the aspects related to the hard component. The actual military confrontation, the occupation of Ukrainian territories by Russian troops and the violent actions (including those that exceed normative and moral boundaries on the battlefield) are the elements that attract public attention to a greater extent than the soft actions with a high degree of ambiguity (Mumford, Carlucci, 2022), contributing to the synergistic effect of sharp power. Under these conditions, hybrid warfare is not necessarily a form of war that substitutes for actual confrontation, but a way in which soft actions complement or compensate for the effects obtained by hard actions. Is the invasion of Ukraine a hybrid warfare, or can we talk about hybrid warfare as running parallel to and during the war? Which of these interpretative postures allows for the deviation from the classical meaning of war, as long as the action has been defined, from the perspective of the aggressor, as a “special military operation”? In the present paper, we attempt at perationalizing the concept of hybrid warfare, which has been analysed in the dynamics of application in several recent studies, starting from the study of its effects in the war in Ukraine (Muradov, 2022; Guerrero, 2022), and that of distinguishing between the hybrid warfare and ghibridnaia voina perspectives."
“俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略使混合战争的概念几乎被遗忘。文献集中在对抗本身,但是,通常,当公众的注意力被吸引到其他问题上时,当公众没有准备好迎接挑战时,混合威胁就会被激活。在入侵乌克兰之后,“混合战争”一词已经消失在大量频繁使用的作战术语中。从这个术语的五个维度的范围来看,它需要五种相关的解释(Solmaz, 2022),在乌克兰战争中,重点似乎放在与硬成分相关的方面。实际的军事对抗、俄罗斯军队对乌克兰领土的占领以及暴力行动(包括在战场上超越规范和道德界限的行动)是比具有高度模糊性的软行动更能吸引公众注意力的因素(Mumford, Carlucci, 2022),有助于锐实力的协同效应。在这种情况下,混合战争不一定是替代实际对抗的战争形式,而是软行动补充或补偿硬行动所取得效果的一种方式。入侵乌克兰是一场混合战争吗,或者我们可以说混合战争与战争并行并在战争期间进行?在这些解释姿态中,哪一种允许偏离战争的经典意义,只要从侵略者的角度来看,行动被定义为“特殊军事行动”?在本文中,我们试图将混合战争的概念具体化,最近的几项研究从其在乌克兰战争中的影响研究开始,分析了混合战争的应用动态(Muradov, 2022;Guerrero, 2022),以及区分混合战争和虚无视角的问题。”
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引用次数: 0
The Authentic Leader and Psychological Capital in the Military Environment 军事环境下的真实领导者与心理资本
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.10
Marcela Antonesei, Simona Făsărea
“Authentic leadership” is a significant area of research. Based on the theory, which explains how individuals establish a social and professional relationship, we have postulated a statistical relationship between authentic leadership and psychological capital. Thus, the implications of this type of relationship for theory and practice are discussed in the paper. In this study, we intend to conduct an exploratory study to demonstrate not only the role of authentic leadership in the military organization, but also how it is achieved. The study aims to identify whether there is a significant relationship between authentic leadership and psychological capital. Why is such research important in the military environment? Because military leaders can motivate subordinates both inside the organization and outside the chain of command. Being an authentic leader is much more complex than simply “giving an order”. An authentic leader’s influence on other colleagues or subordinates can take many forms.
“真实领导力”是一个重要的研究领域。基于解释个体如何建立社会和职业关系的理论,我们假设了真实领导和心理资本之间的统计关系。因此,本文讨论了这种关系对理论和实践的影响。在本研究中,我们打算进行一项探索性研究,不仅要证明真实领导在军事组织中的作用,而且要证明它是如何实现的。本研究旨在确定真实领导与心理资本之间是否存在显著的关系。为什么这样的研究在军事环境中很重要?因为军事领导人可以激励组织内部和指挥系统外部的下属。做一个真正的领导者比简单的“下命令”要复杂得多。一个真正的领导者对其他同事或下属的影响可以有多种形式。
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引用次数: 0
Methods of Identifying Vulnerabilities in the Information Security Incident Management Process 信息安全事件管理过程中漏洞识别方法
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.7
C. Carstea
"The application of tools and methods to improve the effectiveness of the information security management system by detecting and neutralizing cyber attacks, monitoring and blocking DDoS attacks, Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS), Intrusion Prevention Systems (IPS), blocking TOR Exit Nodes, blocking Layer 7 Regular Expression attacks, web filtering, blocking malware attacks, ransomware, spammers and spam servers has become a sine-qua-non requirement in the management of information security incidents in order to minimize their impact on IT systems. The paper provides insight into the impact of integrating much-needed security requirements for information technology users in military systems. The collection of information was carried out on a statistical sample of 128 students from military academies in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland. The research methods are complemented by cross-sectional (questionnaire, survey, observation) and observational methods."
“通过检测和中和网络攻击、监控和阻止DDoS攻击、入侵检测系统(IDS)、入侵防御系统(IPS)、阻止TOR出口节点、阻止第7层正则表达式攻击、web过滤、阻止恶意软件攻击、勒索软件,应用工具和方法提高信息安全管理系统的有效性。垃圾邮件发送者和垃圾邮件服务器已成为管理资讯保安事件的必要条件,以尽量减少其对资讯科技系统的影响。本文提供了对集成军事系统中信息技术用户急需的安全需求的影响的见解。收集资料的统计样本是罗马尼亚、保加利亚、波兰军事院校的128名学生。研究方法以横断面(问卷、调查、观察)和观察法为补充。
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引用次数: 0
EU Policies for Developing Capabilities to Counter Hybrid Threats 欧盟发展应对混合威胁能力的政策
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.9
Maria Stefan
"Combating hybrid threats is one of the main dimensions of the European Union’s policies expressed in the recently developed document, called “A Strategic Compass for Security and Defence”, which guides the development of the Union’s capabilities in the field of international security. The new document entails combining the tools developed since 2016 to combat hybrid threats in an “EU Hybrid Toolbox”, which will also include new tools and modes of action. While the primary responsibility for countering hostile hybrid activity will continue to lie with member states, the EU aims to have a greater capacity to support and coordinate in order to prevent and respond adequately to new threats. The EU’s approach focuses on non-military aspects and on the development of military capabilities to respond to hybrid crises, an aspect that implies increasing the importance of cooperation with NATO in this field."
“打击混合威胁是欧洲联盟政策的主要方面之一,这体现在最近制定的文件中,称为“安全和防务战略指南针”,该文件指导了欧盟在国际安全领域能力的发展。新文件要求将自2016年以来开发的工具结合起来,在“欧盟混合工具箱”中打击混合威胁,其中还将包括新的工具和行动模式。虽然打击敌对混合活动的主要责任将继续由成员国承担,但欧盟的目标是拥有更大的支持和协调能力,以预防和充分应对新的威胁。欧盟的方法侧重于非军事方面和军事能力的发展,以应对混合危机,这方面意味着与北约在这一领域合作的重要性日益增加。”
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引用次数: 0
1946. The “Straits Crisis” as Reflected in the Intelligence Reports of the Romanian Military Attaché to the Republic of Türkiye Office’s Secretary 1946. 罗马尼亚驻捷克共和国武官秘书情报报告所反映的“海峡危机”
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.55535/rmt.2023.1.11
Lucian Drăghici
"The “Straits Question” has long been a factor of tension in the Black Sea area, because of Russia and later the Soviet Union’s desire to control the Bosporus and Dardanelles, mainly with the aim of turning the Black Sea into a “Russian lake”. After the end of the Second World War, in full ascension as a victorious country and in the tradition of Tsarist Russia, the Soviet Union tried to take control of the Straits through political and military pressure to the detriment of Türkiye, although the Soviet Union had signed the Montreux Convention in 1936, which established the predominant role of the Republic of Türkiye in the control of naval traffic in the Straits, especially in wartime. The atmosphere so heavy with tension from the autumn of 1946, when the outbreak of a war between the USSR and Türkiye seemed inevitable, is reflected in the intelligence reports prepared by the secretary of the Office of the Romanian military attaché to the Republic of Türkiye. The documents include the first defence measures taken by Türkiye at a political and military level, the effects of the “Straits Crisis” on the Turkish population and the beginning of the process of Türkiye’s rapprochement with the USA and the Great Britain, a process that ended with the accession of the Republic of Türkiye to NATO in 1952."
“海峡问题”长期以来一直是黑海地区的紧张因素,因为俄罗斯和后来的苏联希望控制博斯普鲁斯海峡和达达尼尔海峡,主要目的是将黑海变成“俄罗斯的湖”。第二次世界大战结束后,苏联以战胜国的身份全面崛起,并遵循沙俄的传统,试图通过政治和军事压力控制海峡,对 rkiye不利,尽管苏联在1936年签署了《蒙特勒公约》,该公约确立了 rkiye共和国在控制海峡海上交通方面的主导作用,特别是在战时。1946年秋天,苏联和基耶共和国之间的战争似乎不可避免地爆发,从那时起,气氛就十分紧张,这反映在罗马尼亚驻基耶共和国武官办公室秘书编写的情报报告中。这些文件包括基耶共和国在政治和军事层面采取的第一次防御措施,“海峡危机”对土耳其人民的影响,以及基耶共和国与美国和英国和解进程的开始,这一进程以1952年基耶共和国加入北约组织而告终。”
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引用次数: 0
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Romanian Military Thinking
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