In Search of a Theory of Minor Powers in Interstate Asymmetric Conflict

Abstract

The second chapter presents the theoretical framework of minor powers in asymmetric interstate conflicts, in line with problem-driven pragmatism. The framework examines how foreign support, window of opportunity, domestic crisis, regime stability, and anomalous beliefs shape their choices, particularly the choice to go to war. There are theoretical disagreements over definite roles each condition plays, the reason why further inquiry is justified. Moreover, to account for the possibility that conditions can offset or complement each other, the concept of conjunctural causation is utilised, reflecting on greater complexity in understanding the asymmetric conflict. An important caveat is raised, namely, that this study focuses on conventional interstate wars, because, unlike unconventional conflict, state actors have identifiable territory, resources, and military personnel. Such exposure makes them more vulnerable in asymmetric conflict compared to the vulnerability of non-state actors.