An Analysis of India’s Trade Flow with BIMSTEC nations- A Gravity Model Approach

S. Rai, A. Paswan, Dr. S.N. Jha
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Abstract

At present, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) represent 22 percent of the global population and carries immense economic promise, with a combined GDP worth $ 3.5 trillion (2018). BIMSTEC have India as the largest economy of the group followed by Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Myanmar and Bhutan. The paper tries to examine the impact of determinants of trade, on trading pattern of India with the BIMSTEC nations, by employing an augmented gravity model on panel data, since its formation for the period of 22 years i.e., from 1997-2018. The paper tries to examine the India’s trade flow within BIMSTEC trading bloc by implying augmented gravity model followed by Egger (2000,2002), Baltagi et al. (2003) and Serlenga and Shin (2007). Several checks have been performed to imply the presence of serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and contemporaneous correlation in the panels. Many other preliminary tests have also been performed to know the crosssectional dependency, stationarity, panel co-integration and normality of variables. The simple panel OLS estimation technique has been used conduct Regression. The study finds out that Heckscher-Ohlin- Samuelson theorem explain the India’s pattern of trade with the bloc. The variables GDP, per capita GDP, Trade GDP ratio, common border and belonging to BIMSTEC has positive impact on the trade between the India and country j. While tax and distance are negatively correlated with total trade of the nations as per our expectations.
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印度与经济合作组织(BIMSTEC)国家的贸易流动分析——一个重力模型方法
目前,“孟加拉湾多部门技术经济合作倡议”(BIMSTEC)代表着全球22%的人口,拥有巨大的经济前景,GDP总额达到3.5万亿美元(2018年)。印度是该组织最大的经济体,其次是孟加拉国、泰国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔、缅甸和不丹。本文试图通过对面板数据采用增强重力模型,自1997年至2018年的22年期间形成以来,研究贸易决定因素对印度与BIMSTEC国家贸易模式的影响。本文试图通过暗示增强重力模型来检验印度在BIMSTEC贸易集团内的贸易流动,随后是Egger (2000,2002), Baltagi等人(2003)和Serlenga和Shin(2007)。已经进行了几次检查,以暗示在面板中存在序列相关、异方差和同期相关。还进行了许多其他初步测试,以了解横截面依赖性,平稳性,面板协整性和变量的正态性。使用简单面板OLS估计技术进行回归。研究发现,Heckscher-Ohlin- Samuelson定理可以解释印度与欧盟的贸易模式。变量GDP,人均GDP,贸易GDP比率,共同边界和属于BIMSTEC对印度和j国之间的贸易有积极影响。而税收和距离与国家之间的贸易总额负相关,根据我们的预期。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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