The Research of Household Probability Distribution and Trip Production Forecast Based on Trip Characteristics of Household

Abstract

This paper apply cluster analysis cross classification probability method and otherwise theory method to research the trip production forecast and household probability distribution model based on trip characteristics of household. Firstly, this text analyzes the actual family survey datum of Jinzhou city to confirm the elementary kinds of family. Then, use hierachical clustering methods to analyze that, can reduce the kinds of family and the workload of research the different kinds of family's trip characteristics, when applied in research the household probability distribution model that avoid the issue of use cross classification at before. Based on the study, finally constitute the household probability distribution model and applied to forecast the trip production.